MLB · resolved market
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01fcd7a7302b4296ec4ea2b66228a90be096ac86ecf9adc65d9e5891f18cfcdf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof Detroit Tigers, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,331
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,379
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,331 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Francisco Giants | 64c | 9,146$5,863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,283.28 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Detroit Tigers | 36c | 8,872$3,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,197.3 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Detroit Tigers | 45c | 1,867$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.75 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked San Francisco Giants | 54c | 1,728$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798.87 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Detroit Tigers | 43c | 646$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.78 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed San Francisco Giants | 57c | 621$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.03 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed San Francisco Giants | 66c | 372.31$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.36 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Detroit Tigers | 34c | 324.55$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.35 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked San Francisco Giants | 56c | 205.99$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.76 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Detroit Tigers | 19c | 105$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…8092backed Detroit Tigers | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed San Francisco Giants | 65c | 89.94$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.48 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2c…00b5backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 79.25$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.09 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b4…11adbacked San Francisco Giants | 68c | 67$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 171 | 48%82 W · 89 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Detroit Tigers | 51c | 52.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…b5b5backed Detroit Tigers | 48c | 47.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Detroit Tigers | 48c | 45.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Detroit Tigers | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Detroit Tigers | 43c | 44.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Detroit Tigers | 50c | 39.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed San Francisco Giants | 57c | 35.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Detroit Tigers | 37c | 32.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Detroit Tigers | 39c | 31.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x770f…ac44backed Detroit Tigers | 40c | 30.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…83adbacked Detroit Tigers | 41c | 29.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…00d5backed Detroit Tigers | 41c | 29.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Detroit Tigers | 44c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed San Francisco Giants | 57c | 25.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked San Francisco Giants | 59c | 24.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 153 | 40.5%62 W · 91 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Detroit Tigers | 48c | 23.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 215 | 47%101 W · 114 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Detroit Tigers | 55c | 22.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked San Francisco Giants | 59c | 19.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…5ed1backed San Francisco Giants | 68c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 242 | 63.6%154 W · 88 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed San Francisco Giants | 69c | 17.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked San Francisco Giants | 79c | 17.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.63 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Detroit Tigers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. San Francisco GiantsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.