MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3eade3b6156f661d67e8c9e9ec8888ed4f77ee26112f274b2272d0e29467dfd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof San Francisco Giants, Detroit Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,744
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,048
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,744 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Detroit Tigers | 44c | 4,023$1,751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,750.66 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Francisco Giants | 56c | 3,497$1,955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,542.64 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Detroit Tigers | 46c | 2,239$1,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,031.02 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked San Francisco Giants | 54c | 2,148$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$988.23 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Detroit Tigers | 42c | 2,000$837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$837.49 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed San Francisco Giants | 55c | 1,629$896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.14 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed San Francisco Giants | 64c | 1,156$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.16 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Francisco Giants | 53c | 1,154$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.93 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fae…8f07backed Detroit Tigers | 46c | 1,117$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.02 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x949e…20afbacked Detroit Tigers | 13c | 776.98$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.81 | 228 | 31.6%72 W · 156 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Detroit Tigers | 44c | 513.98$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.01 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Detroit Tigers | 42c | 499.9$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.46 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed San Francisco Giants | 65c | 343.57$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.25 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8c…01c9backed Detroit Tigers | 36c | 310$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.7 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Detroit Tigers | 40c | 282.1$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.8 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked San Francisco Giants | 68c | 184.62$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.52 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked San Francisco Giants | 50c | 131.42$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.83 | 459 | 52.9%243 W · 216 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked San Francisco Giants | 66c | 115.59$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed San Francisco Giants | 57c | 90.81$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.61 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17f5…f087backed Detroit Tigers | 26c | 76.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed San Francisco Giants | 58c | 71.01$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked San Francisco Giants | 54c | 70.37$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Detroit Tigers | 44c | 66.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked San Francisco Giants | 60c | 64.62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked San Francisco Giants | 66c | 57.79$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 406 | 58.4%237 W · 169 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed San Francisco Giants | 66c | 57.79$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b4…11adbacked San Francisco Giants | 63c | 49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 171 | 48%82 W · 89 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda6f…1e46backed Detroit Tigers | 49c | 47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked San Francisco Giants | 66c | 45.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97a7…ac24backed Detroit Tigers | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd691…fcc6backed Detroit Tigers | 35c | 39.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4db…e401backed San Francisco Giants | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 32.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0617…08d9backed Detroit Tigers | 35c | 30.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked San Francisco Giants | 64c | 30.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 557 | 58%323 W · 234 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x009b…e769backed Detroit Tigers | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 122 | 62.3%76 W · 46 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2c…00b5backed San Francisco Giants | 61c | 27.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked San Francisco Giants | 66c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed San Francisco Giants | 66c | 20.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed San Francisco Giants | 67c | 17.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Detroit Tigers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. San Francisco GiantsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.