MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c97a586bd3c0d02ae8960a40aaca888aeba623498954a026672f8a81ea9cbfd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof San Francisco Giants, Detroit Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,898
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,959
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,898 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Francisco Giants | 51c | 45,052$22,863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,188.84 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Detroit Tigers | 48c | 43,301$20,784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,784.45 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Detroit Tigers | 67c | 3,485$2,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,317.65 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed San Francisco Giants | 54c | 1,353$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.55 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Detroit Tigers | 53c | 696.78$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.74 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked San Francisco Giants | 32c | 523.1$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.22 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed San Francisco Giants | 29c | 379.34$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.33 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Francisco Giants | 66c | 200.49$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.77 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed San Francisco Giants | 68c | 172$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.48 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed San Francisco Giants | 55c | 120$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…0e95backed San Francisco Giants | 29c | 110$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.1 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Detroit Tigers | 35c | 93.25$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2515…16b9backed Detroit Tigers | 70c | 91.77$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.24 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2c…00b5backed Detroit Tigers | 27c | 87.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Detroit Tigers | 69c | 85.26$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.83 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked San Francisco Giants | 52c | 82.48$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.74 | 459 | 52.9%243 W · 216 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Detroit Tigers | 33c | 76.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed San Francisco Giants | 29c | 70$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.7 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Detroit Tigers | 71c | 50.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Detroit Tigers | 58c | 50.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 314 | 46.8%147 W · 167 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Detroit Tigers | 21c | 48.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Detroit Tigers | 28c | 47.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Detroit Tigers | 71c | 32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Detroit Tigers | 48c | 28.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed San Francisco Giants | 75c | 27.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Detroit Tigers | 73c | 27.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Detroit Tigers | 70c | 24.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…83adbacked Detroit Tigers | 71c | 17.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Detroit Tigers | 68c | 14.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Detroit Tigers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. San Francisco GiantsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.