MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60f50c9e96bf22e858e86d9ecab083a73d8b352cf36e94fda32cd5f838245b44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,199
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,071
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,199 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 48c | 3,330$1,594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,736.48 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 58c | 1,488$858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$857.65 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 46c | 1,111$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.49 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Under | 44c | 1,076$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.62 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 72c | 948.79$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.89 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 43c | 735.18$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.82 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 44c | 535$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.4 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 56c | 399$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.44 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Under | 56c | 398.2$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.21 | 1,137 | 42.6%484 W · 653 L | +10.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 33c | 249.99$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.49 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 62c | 245$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.1 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 38c | 241.94$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.94 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc74c…2413backed Under | 62c | 241.94$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.94 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 79c | 184.04$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.36 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Over | 67c | 98.29$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.85 | 445 | 53.5%238 W · 207 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2515…16b9backed Over | 78c | 95.34$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.37 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 63c | 81.51$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.23 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2c…00b5backed Over | 15c | 79.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Over | 61c | 54.91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Over | 63c | 53.92$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Over | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…b5b5backed Over | 60c | 42.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 44c | 35.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…3373backed Over | 32c | 33.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 68c | 31.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfafa…26cbbacked Over | 44c | 28.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 59c | 27.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x050d…2b12backed Over | 50c | 22.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Over | 56c | 18.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 215 | 47%101 W · 114 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Over | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Detroit Tigers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. San Francisco GiantsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.