MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17be43e9c4b35486ff612e0d933cf4c49ee3256b9ed69a312aac66155776d3fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,081
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,894
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,081 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 60c | 11,351$6,838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,837.71 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 41c | 10,952$4,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,477.4 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 50c | 3,224$1,598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,626.36 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 19c | 2,351$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.66 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 59c | 1,799$1,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061.26 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 59c | 1,305$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.95 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 60c | 713$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.8 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 40c | 602.57$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.51 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 42c | 520.68$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.62 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 40c | 498.95$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.92 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 59c | 456.8$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.97 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 45c | 378.75$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.06 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x835b…118fbacked Over | 70c | 350$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.5 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 60c | 340.04$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.02 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Under | 59c | 250$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.5 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 60c | 230.46$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.79 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Under | 59c | 127.7$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 476 | 52.9%252 W · 224 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 40c | 127$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.2 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Under | 26c | 123.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 309 | 34.3%106 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 60c | 112.45$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.47 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…ff44backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 264 | 44.3%117 W · 147 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 39c | 89.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.86 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcebf…832ebacked Under | 57c | 88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…ac24backed Under | 57c | 87.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Over | 41c | 70.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.73 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…ef2fbacked Over | 49c | 40.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 34c | 39.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Under | 59c | 36.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 40c | 35.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…65fcbacked Under | 60c | 34.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 41c | 33.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Over | 39c | 31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 61c | 30.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 13.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 14.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 15.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.