Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x180303951eb1b431448e159bc02146267d510ccc7cdb7a73c45345fa34e91014
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,995
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,019
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,995 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 2c | 3,704$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 3c | 3,035$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.61 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…54e9backed Yes | 2c | 2,100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 136 | 14.7%20 W · 116 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 1c | 1,956$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,923$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 2c | 1,332$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 2c | 799.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 9c | 773.03$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.68 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 3c | 700$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 7c | 663.34$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.27 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f23…441fbacked Yes | 10c | 572.94$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.59 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 17c | 479.98$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.53 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 378.43$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.08 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 9c | 315.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a4a4backed Yes | 14c | 315.12$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.93 | 192 | 17.2%33 W · 159 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 9c | 300.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 14c | 259.48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.59 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf325…f8e0backed Yes | 13c | 256.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 10c | 239.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 9c | 222.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 11c | 219.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 21c | 219.14$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.64 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…b254backed Yes | 23c | 218.45$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.98 | 119 | 35.3%42 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 17c | 217.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 20c | 193$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff3e…953fbacked Yes | 6c | 177.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 12c | 172.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06de…cf4cbacked Yes | 7c | 166.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c8…ef0dbacked Yes | 13c | 149.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7247…ecb6backed Yes | 8c | 134.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 20c | 129.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 128.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 79c | 126.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 14c | 110.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc950…9420backed Yes | 9c | 108.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 130 | 35.4%46 W · 84 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf956…9bf0backed Yes | 22c | 102.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 14c | 101.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1047…0d63backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c99…3cc4backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27b6…798dbacked Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fb…b01bbacked Yes | 17c | 99.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 79c | 99.32$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed Yes | 23c | 96.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 17c | 94.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00ff…aa2abacked No | 80c | 93.36$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x762b…d3b9backed Yes | 14c | 91.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 80c | 90$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 18c | 88.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed Yes | 17c | 84.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 15c | 82.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 80c | 80$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d72…9461backed Yes | 25c | 63.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…9558backed Yes | 22c | 61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 76c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf93…5d2abacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6e…913fbacked Yes | 22c | 45.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 80c | 43.59$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 76c | 43.05$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aea…5098backed Yes | 25c | 40.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c8…b823backed No | 80c | 37.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5e…4c95backed No | 77c | 35.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e1…4e25backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 76c | 29.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 77c | 26.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 79c | 25.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 20.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 76c | 13.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1c…5650backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 80cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.