Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x183779c1661b5fd32c72afecf26b30f4e105c10bdfd7c0f4fe01b4bc5e789a01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,725
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,793
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,725 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 24c | 783.7$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.09 | 478 | 45.2%216 W · 262 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 76c | 549.22$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.94 | 629 | 60.3%379 W · 250 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed Yes | 36c | 540$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.88 | 236 | 63.6%150 W · 86 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0546…17a9backed No | 77c | 498.98$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.78 | 53 | 71.7%38 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 77c | 229.15$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.15 | 477 | 58.7%280 W · 197 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 221.12$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.02 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 76c | 219.68$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.72 | 251 | 58.6%147 W · 104 L | +14.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0d…0885backed Yes | 14c | 205.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 68c | 203.18$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.98 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa387…3d3cbacked Yes | 24c | 183.57$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 16c | 183.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed Yes | 24c | 165.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.47 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | -11.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 25c | 164$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed No | 76c | 125.71$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.08 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 66c | 121.28$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.92 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb66…9085backed Yes | 25c | 112.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 27c | 106.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 140 | 40%56 W · 84 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 887 | 49.5%439 W · 448 L | -26.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 63c | 99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 1,196 | 50.8%608 W · 588 L | -27.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 58c | 98.38$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.32 | 1,632 | 60.7%990 W · 642 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 68c | 98.01$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 25c | 90.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed Yes | 15c | 89.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 254 | 43.7%111 W · 143 L | +27.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 14c | 86.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 499 | 51.7%258 W · 241 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 75c | 85.45$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 63c | 76$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x175c…2a68backed Yes | 14c | 70$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +25%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xebcc…108fbacked Yes | 22c | 66.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 76c | 59.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 29c | 58.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…a34ebacked Yes | 25c | 54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 25c | 51.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 92 | 29.3%27 W · 65 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb22a…9d35backed Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x546a…1988backed No | 73c | 45.21$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cf…b443backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -8.3wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 76c | 39.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x77ad…82bdbacked Yes | 30c | 38.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 56 | 25%14 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 73c | 38.82$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 74c | 37.08$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 73c | 36.87$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 601 | 23.6%142 W · 459 L | -25.1wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 75c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 338 | 67.8%229 W · 109 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 32.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 60c | 32.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 77c | 28.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 74c | 26.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 571 | 58.1%332 W · 239 L | -28.3wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…b59bbacked No | 53c | 25.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 138 | 61.6%85 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab8…3531backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked No | 73c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,627 | 58.3%2,696 W · 1,931 L | -114.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf740…d999backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 220 | 45.9%101 W · 119 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf09f…1ca0backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed No | 76c | 19.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 101 | 70.3%71 W · 30 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked No | 77c | 18.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 80c | 16.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e34…2c47backed No | 73c | 16.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 283 | 69.3%196 W · 87 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.