Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa081cb1845e32a32e6c1dd9166e3e88b509ccb5fb216f3ad3a71776340a4cbae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,725
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,590
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,725 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 7c | 977.62$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.36 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 45c | 559.08$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.51 | 629 | 60.3%379 W · 250 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed Yes | 44c | 552.9$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.82 | 236 | 63.6%150 W · 86 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 13c | 438.97$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.97 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 38c | 417.18$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.8 | 601 | 23.6%142 W · 459 L | -25.1wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked No | 40c | 349.61$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.43 | 357 | 29.7%106 W · 251 L | -18.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 59c | 336.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.71 | 214 | 60.3%129 W · 85 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 40c | 304.19$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.31 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed No | 14c | 249.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 421 | 33.3%140 W · 281 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 67c | 194.28$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 901 | 55.7%502 W · 399 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed Yes | 77c | 185.95$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.61 | 86 | 51.2%44 W · 42 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 58c | 177.52$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.56 | 265 | 56.2%149 W · 116 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 54c | 168.69$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.09 | 144 | 55.6%80 W · 64 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0018…83a4backed No | 19c | 161.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 71c | 156.39$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.03 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 57c | 155.19$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.16 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 54c | 148.02$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.32 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 33c | 138.33$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.97 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 14c | 135.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 7,233 | 9.3%675 W · 6,558 L | -1,116.1wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 60c | 133.46$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.46 | 1,156 | 31.1%359 W · 797 L | -38.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 54c | 120$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 54c | 119.53$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.42 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 63c | 119.26$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.91 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80c7…d9c5backed No | 34c | 108.6$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 47c | 104.17$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.1 | 256 | 53.9%138 W · 118 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 39c | 102.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 175 | 38.9%68 W · 107 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 59c | 101.01$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.01 | 102 | 42.2%43 W · 59 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…2162backed Yes | 59c | 100.87$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.87 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 887 | 49.5%439 W · 448 L | -26.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 188 | 29.8%56 W · 132 L | -12.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -25%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…c8b1backed No | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed No | 40c | 99.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 221 | 16.7%37 W · 184 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 57c | 82$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.74 | 997 | 57.2%570 W · 427 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 47c | 80.91$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 1,421 | 31.1%442 W · 979 L | -93.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 15c | 78.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…d21fbacked Yes | 69c | 77.55$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72c8…c4b6backed Yes | 65c | 75.32$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 36c | 67.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed No | 35c | 66.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | -11.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 52c | 66.13$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2560…8d6dbacked Yes | 76c | 64.74$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 37c | 60.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 24c | 57.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 49c | 55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked Yes | 67c | 54.69$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 92 | 42.4%39 W · 53 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 52c | 54.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 220 | 45.9%101 W · 119 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 55c | 52.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 358 | 64%229 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 40c | 51.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 575 | 59.7%343 W · 232 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba5…c168backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 140 | 40%56 W · 84 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 31c | 48.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 27c | 46.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5d…1e18backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 44c | 44.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 57c | 43.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 63c | 43.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 50c | 41.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f28…b6bbbacked No | 34c | 41.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 53c | 40.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 346 | 67.6%234 W · 112 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 1,158 | 57.1%661 W · 497 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 52c | 38.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 34c | 37.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 138 | 61.6%85 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 45c | 35.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 255 | 64.7%165 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 40c | 33.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 881 | 50.5%445 W · 436 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 76c | 31.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 474 | 36.7%174 W · 300 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17b6…af55backed No | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae28…7435backed No | 43c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1c…a9a5backed Yes | 45c | 26.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65a1…564dbacked Yes | 57c | 26.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x637e…9917backed No | 57c | 25.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 60c | 24.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7240…9906backed Yes | 74c | 22.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 69c | 21.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11dd…4515backed Yes | 75c | 20.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 941 | 62.3%586 W · 355 L | -24.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Yes | 65c | 19.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 106 | 67.9%72 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda08…21e4backed Yes | 68c | 18.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f84…7fbebacked Yes | 69c | 15.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.