Us Politics · resolved market
Will Zohran Mamdani disparage Donald Trump on Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1855e792c62f638f32ce196ecd2b08d3fd788b3fdb3bd57a28ecb6787b351a98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,291
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,045
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,291 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fd2…3efbbacked Yes | 23c | 717.41$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.95 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes | 21c | 599.99$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +157.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 8c | 555$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe016…dcc3backed No | 78c | 368.92$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8f…4dc1backed Yes | 20c | 324.1$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf58…d161backed No | 76c | 311.65$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 23c | 232.65$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 7c | 227.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.01 | 192 | 36.5%70 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a8…7efabacked No | 78c | 166$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.52 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +170.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 74c | 132.99$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed Yes | 11c | 126.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd40d…b2fabacked Yes | 22c | 122$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed No | 77c | 120$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed No | 75c | 117.68$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.47 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc187…6f18backed Yes | 17c | 94.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 23c | 78.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 73c | 66.93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 142 | 30.3%43 W · 99 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d25…8d36backed Yes | 33c | 65.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…6cc3backed No | 79c | 65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 69c | 62.86$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b22…c59cbacked Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f21…c40fbacked No | 78c | 51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 26c | 40.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc360…dbb2backed No | 74c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 32c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 78c | 30.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a8fdbacked No | 76c | 29.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 61cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc534…b734backed No | 76c | 28.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b5…16b0backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 115 | 29.6%34 W · 81 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80f9…3ab9backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd541…e652backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25b9…3058backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…732cbacked No | 74c | 18.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.