Earnings · resolved market
Will Capital One (COF) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1859bedc7a7c34cdd13a7c864177423ed1732841eb486dc59ceb05177ef4cb1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,846
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,314
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,846 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f63…6643backed No | 55c | 6,348$3,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,837.62 | 65 | 100%65 W · 0 L | +26.0wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 82+0.29 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed Yes | 11c | 3,818$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.98 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 13cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac51…3f9ebacked No | 11c | 2,079$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,854.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee17…6ea1backed No | 10c | 1,244$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,122.07 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9121…bd6cbacked No | 11c | 864.24$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +349.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 9c | 618.15$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.42 | 768 | 37.4%287 W · 481 L | +35.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc775…6b22backed Yes | 10c | 600$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +219.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed No | 12c | 478.81$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.54 | 306 | 15%46 W · 260 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Yes | 72c | 416.67$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked No | 22c | 399.28$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.43 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed No | 10c | 366.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.67 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 28c | 350.71$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.51 | 316 | 29.4%93 W · 223 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 6c | 323.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.21 | 473 | 38.5%182 W · 291 L | +20.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca9…cfafbacked Yes | 69c | 266.58$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…7690backed No | 28c | 262.06$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.68 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcde3…4f66backed No | 11c | 209.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +203%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672a…04e8backed No | 10c | 200.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.6 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +101.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 22c | 200$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.3 | 332 | 25%83 W · 249 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…23dfbacked No | 16c | 183.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.26 | 108 | 21.3%23 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x825d…1633backed No | 11c | 177.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.61 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 20cpaid | +120.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 12c | 167.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.24 | 464 | 14.2%66 W · 398 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 74c | 162.83$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.99 | 157 | 65%102 W · 55 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a6b…0ad4backed No | 12c | 160.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.97 | 73 | 20.5%15 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked No | 10c | 158.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.21 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3e…713abacked Yes | 66c | 155.7$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.19 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 50cpaid | +109.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8df5…e945backed Yes | 78c | 128$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x522e…2937backed No | 26c | 112$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 72c | 111.11$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed No | 17c | 108.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.89 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 74c | 103.47$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.08 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…70a6backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +170%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed5…83efbacked No | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00ae…ae32backed No | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 107 | 21.5%23 W · 84 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76a3…5249backed No | 25c | 99.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.99 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8b…1754backed No | 15c | 69.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.32 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 20c | 56.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.59 | 582 | 39%227 W · 355 L | -25.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 28c | 55.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.29 | 213 | 41.3%88 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 78c | 42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 64c | 31.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4670…5f1cbacked No | 34c | 30.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…9024backed Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ff…afbebacked Yes | 36c | 29.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.23per pick | 41cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5780…dd00backed Yes | 77c | 26.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b30…64e9backed Yes | 66c | 26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0f…db07backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf812…2c07backed Yes | 66c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.