Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x186f7dc942845d6aefc47a980498774cd6ae4f770e19913e6e2118440ef1c31c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,928
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,753
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,928 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 27c | 716.43$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.92 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 71c | 348.97$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.5 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d78…e5c9backed Yes | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.06 | 105 | 24.8%26 W · 79 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 30c | 170.71$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.62 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 26c | 160$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 30c | 113.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 71c | 111.85$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 30c | 108.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 67c | 107.91$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.13 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 70c | 92.46$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 72c | 84.77$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 76c | 82.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd6…5ab1backed No | 70c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 75cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 13c | 79.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 79$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 51c | 76.05$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 43c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fb…182cbacked Yes | 61c | 58.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.82 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 60c | 47.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 47.01$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd41…ea0bbacked Yes | 23c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 75c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 68c | 40.93$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 70c | 33.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 32c | 31.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 74c | 30.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 64c | 26.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 71c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 72c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 75c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb335…aac1backed Yes | 49c | 20.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…a722backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…20a1backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 18.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 72c | 16.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 69c | 15.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 73c | 13.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C or below on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on July 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.