TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Bonn: Jan Choinski vs Francesco Passaro

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Jan Choinskiof Jan Choinski, Francesco Passaro
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$66,340
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$72,710

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,340 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5f65…2036backed Francesco Passaro34c26,471$9,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,00074439.8%296 W · 448 L-0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Jan Choinski66c10,076$6,655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,421.38,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Jan Choinski68c9,469$6,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,998.4911,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Jan Choinski74c6,799$5,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,789.694,18544.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L+14.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14a2…704cbacked Francesco Passaro1c3,143$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.7414418.1%26 W · 118 L-0.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01fa…cea7backed Francesco Passaro14c2,477$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.0132735.5%116 W · 211 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb767…d848backed Jan Choinski66c2,267$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$766.6622667.7%153 W · 73 L+1.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Francesco Passaro30c2,249$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665.093,60542.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L-43.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50b9…4467backed Jan Choinski66c1,800$1,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61238033.9%129 W · 251 L+0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf12f…b30fbacked Francesco Passaro17c1,765$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30070041.1%288 W · 412 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Francesco Passaro35c1,510$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.133,25648.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L-53.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Jan Choinski79c1,506$1,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.394,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x14f4…82ebbacked Jan Choinski66c1,205$795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.178140.7%33 W · 48 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Francesco Passaro26c941$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.131,43524.3%348 W · 1,087 L-36.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8dae…125cbacked Francesco Passaro34c899.99$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30622346.6%104 W · 119 L+15.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+9.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Francesco Passaro34c599.98$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.817,04939.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L-20.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d67…3667backed Jan Choinski71c583.87$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.5170537.6%265 W · 440 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-27.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Francesco Passaro35c451.47$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.024,24152.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L+65.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Jan Choinski66c422$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.21,36543.3%591 W · 774 L-26.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b57…de6bbacked Jan Choinski71c400$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11631237.8%118 W · 194 L-24.5wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-17.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb6a8…b1f7backed Jan Choinski65c348.45$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.9628738.3%110 W · 177 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42d6…01ccbacked Jan Choinski76c330.67$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.671,07762.8%676 W · 401 L-27.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Jan Choinski66c311.49$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.912,76647.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1226…f998backed Jan Choinski65c308.45$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.4529940.1%120 W · 179 L-15.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Francesco Passaro35c305.7$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.227,13949.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L+109.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd46e…d10dbacked Francesco Passaro33c293.94$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9758931.1%183 W · 406 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Jan Choinski66c214.65$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.9861152.2%319 W · 292 L-11.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbc6…9092backed Francesco Passaro7c213$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9136621.6%79 W · 287 L+1.1wins0.00per pick21cpaid-11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b66…2e68backed Jan Choinski65c212.31$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.313560%21 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd179…74adbacked Jan Choinski65c200.85$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.328756.1%161 W · 126 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+27.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Jan Choinski78c200.75$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.096,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Jan Choinski75c200$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Jan Choinski72c200$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.031,70844.8%766 W · 942 L-18.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x294b…22d2backed Jan Choinski65c153.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.8527949.1%137 W · 142 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2da4…31bfbacked Jan Choinski66c150$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514949%24 W · 25 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-16.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Francesco Passaro35c141.49$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505,26128.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L-19.4wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25f7…b16dbacked Jan Choinski67c126.87$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.8728154.8%154 W · 127 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f45…e6a7backed Jan Choinski64c117.18$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.186031.7%19 W · 41 L-9.3wins-0.15per pick47cpaid-36.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x660e…76ccbacked Francesco Passaro18c116.67$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-40.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xecdb…c4c7backed Francesco Passaro34c109.64$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7255941.3%231 W · 328 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0882…dceabacked Francesco Passaro37c108.11$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404143.9%18 W · 23 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc72…cd13backed Francesco Passaro32c108$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5697852%509 W · 469 L+7.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61f1…7aefbacked Jan Choinski66c107.31$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.4927653.6%148 W · 128 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3453…8524backed Jan Choinski66c106.56$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.7327254.4%148 W · 124 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6feb…c082backed Francesco Passaro34c106.38$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1730644.1%135 W · 171 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Francesco Passaro34c99.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341,95548%939 W · 1,016 L+16.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x191f…4a8dbacked Francesco Passaro36c98.75$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5532333.7%109 W · 214 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Jan Choinski64c97$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.921,22753.2%653 W · 574 L-5.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccf6…b29fbacked Jan Choinski67c82.09$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.099448.9%46 W · 48 L-6.4wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-10.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Jan Choinski74c74.96$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.652,04946.8%958 W · 1,091 L+19.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6384…3d67backed Jan Choinski74c67.36$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.5112061.7%74 W · 46 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Francesco Passaro34c60.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4485250%426 W · 426 L+22.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x925b…640ebacked Francesco Passaro17c59.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.22828.6%8 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Francesco Passaro33c58.12$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1888358.2%514 W · 369 L+12.9wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Francesco Passaro36c55.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2017140.9%70 W · 101 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc730…c568backed Francesco Passaro34c51.92$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.653458.8%20 W · 14 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+25.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2077…8161backed Jan Choinski63c50.62$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.581,02157.8%590 W · 431 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed Francesco Passaro34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171,25044.7%559 W · 691 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebde…1de0backed Jan Choinski68c49.99$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1689134.3%306 W · 585 L-40.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-22.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x03dd…49c8backed Francesco Passaro33c49.86$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4546851.5%241 W · 227 L+17.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Francesco Passaro30c46.64$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.815,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Jan Choinski64c43.56$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.681,86545.6%851 W · 1,014 L+50.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce8b…738abacked Francesco Passaro33c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.222230.6%68 W · 154 L-25.6wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-30.6%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x0c55…3408backed Jan Choinski66c39.39$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.399162.6%57 W · 34 L-5.5wins-0.06per pick69cpaid-9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2396…9485backed Jan Choinski80c36.42$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.2825546.7%119 W · 136 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7dfb…7665backed Jan Choinski66c30.3$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.33164.5%20 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x352b…abd8backed Jan Choinski64c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.816046.3%74 W · 86 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x042d…0b81backed Jan Choinski66c28.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8618666.7%124 W · 62 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00c5…b5e9backed Jan Choinski64c25.31$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.1123162.8%145 W · 86 L+0.6wins0.00per pick63cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a8d…7688backed Jan Choinski76c24.85$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.0933165%215 W · 116 L+22.6wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+7.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc9a4…3926backed Jan Choinski63c23.81$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8159366.8%396 W · 197 L-0.6wins0.00per pick67cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bf8…5b60backed Jan Choinski65c23.08$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0811559.1%68 W · 47 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x26fb…bf43backed Jan Choinski70c22.01$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.65773.7%42 W · 15 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Jan Choinski65c20.98$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.341,71053.7%918 W · 792 L+30.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a4b…3107backed Jan Choinski67c20.52$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f92…7379backed Jan Choinski68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.418068.9%124 W · 56 L0.0wins0.00per pick69cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56cc…d589backed Jan Choinski75c19.81$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.0145564.6%294 W · 161 L+25.1wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+2.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x57b6…9b2cbacked Jan Choinski66c19.68$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6915557.4%89 W · 66 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99d4…7c0dbacked Jan Choinski68c17.69$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6635461.3%217 W · 137 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf504…0111backed Jan Choinski69c17.12$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.231,10256.5%623 W · 479 L+52.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8bf8…093bbacked Jan Choinski65c16.92$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.924953.1%26 W · 23 L-5.7wins-0.12per pick65cpaid-19.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x4383…dbddbacked Jan Choinski64c15.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.634965.3%32 W · 17 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x312c…ceecbacked Jan Choinski69c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.616342.9%27 W · 36 L-8.3wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-25.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.