Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18d6a03b872e5f1f2b3d0392797c1be1f70deb3565d82bc9965d37cc3b5ea18f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,753
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,292
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,753 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x66a1…c2f2backed No | 22c | 5,060$1,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,132.76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 77c | 2,614$2,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.19 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 79c | 2,304$1,818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.38 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 70c | 1,916$1,337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.13 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 49c | 1,272$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.02 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 31c | 1,041$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.35 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 76c | 409.62$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.86 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba5c…42f0backed Yes | 58c | 378.88$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.61 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 37c | 374.96$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.65 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 7c | 369.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.44 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 21c | 355.69$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.54 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 45c | 315.16$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.35 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 304$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.92 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 295$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.45 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf381…40c2backed Yes | 28c | 259.37$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.31 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 9c | 227.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 76c | 221.82$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.87 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 28c | 215.1$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.02 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 33c | 213.69$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.38 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed No | 23c | 208.33$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.79 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 176$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.7 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 25c | 171.27$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.52 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 68c | 157.32$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.56 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 78c | 156.13$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.72 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 73c | 153.25$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.97 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 33c | 149.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.03 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 58c | 123.93$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.91 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 55c | 122.74$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.7 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 78c | 122.68$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.12 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 70c | 122.53$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.34 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 73c | 116.32$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.69 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 16c | 113.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.66 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 74c | 100.84$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.41 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf87c…cfcbbacked Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.04 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 21c | 93.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.47 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 72c | 90.36$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 36c | 84.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 48c | 75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 78c | 69.07$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.66 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 77c | 67.85$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.56 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 72c | 66$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadaa…875abacked Yes | 79c | 59.11$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x036d…e888backed Yes | 66c | 58.58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 78 | 71.8%56 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…c0a7backed No | 68c | 53.06$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.08 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 73c | 52.87$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 72c | 52$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c92…7438backed Yes | 39c | 51.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.51 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked No | 39c | 49.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed No | 29c | 46.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 43.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 63c | 41.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8327…577dbacked Yes | 76c | 41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aec…6e19backed Yes | 76c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 73c | 36.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed Yes | 75c | 30.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 68c | 29.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 74c | 26.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…ec65backed Yes | 71c | 23.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 70c | 21.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 70c | 21.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 76c | 19.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 75c | 15.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…864cbacked No | 75c | 13.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeec0…7ca4backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 60-61°F on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.