Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05b5febd7ff93e23ba54a1fb70ce237102cd22122aa5186fb42885ae20d751f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,906
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,063
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,906 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 61c | 897.91$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.81 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf381…40c2backed Yes | 54c | 445.99$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.84 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 66c | 405.3$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.84 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 50c | 325.21$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.32 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 42c | 274.88$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.52 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 39c | 274$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.08 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 46c | 253.22$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.29 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked Yes | 50c | 226.98$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.95 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 31c | 215.93$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.92 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c38…83d0backed Yes | 66c | 159.66$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 40c | 151$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.9 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 54c | 147.94$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.89 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 53c | 140$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.27 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 25c | 138.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 46c | 130$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 47c | 129.92$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.7 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 55c | 129.08$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.35 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 33c | 128.54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.12 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 46c | 123.2$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 21c | 120$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 49c | 116.64$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.9 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 44c | 115.69$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.76 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 53c | 114.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.32 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 45c | 104$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.72 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 21c | 99.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 49c | 97$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.21 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 47c | 90.64$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.99 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 53c | 87.03$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.11 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 46c | 84.29$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 50c | 83.91$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.73 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 47c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 27c | 76.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 42c | 75.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 74c | 75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 40c | 73.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.97 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 39c | 72.76$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.15 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 40c | 60.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.46 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5015…6f9dbacked No | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 49c | 53.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 53.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 46c | 52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 46c | 50.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.21 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 41c | 48.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3a…08d7backed Yes | 23c | 48.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 39c | 46.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c92…7438backed Yes | 59c | 46.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 46c | 45.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 28c | 41.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 36c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb281…e048backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 55c | 36.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 44c | 33.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe256…0408backed Yes | 47c | 31.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…dcc7backed No | 64c | 31.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -63%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 41c | 28.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 43c | 26.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked No | 41c | 26.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 52c | 24.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa9…a323backed No | 62c | 18.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6739…a52ebacked Yes | 58c | 18.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 60-61°F on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.