Stocks · resolved market
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of February 2 above $270?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18de9c447094337755d955e407703a182555cebf633ec319491580ad0cc66320
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,004
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,086
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,004 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcb58…6a91backed Yes | 6c | 8,005$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,524.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,566.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed Yes | 73c | 3,842$2,804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,037.83 | 1,112 | 43.7%486 W · 626 L | +25.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 14c | 1,184$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.54 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 15c | 899.99$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 54c | 394.51$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.53 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1128…ed15backed Yes | 6c | 345$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 5cpaid | +733.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc8…5e69backed Yes | 16c | 287.8$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 24cpaid | +229.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked No | 11c | 205$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 23c | 201.27$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fde…cbbebacked No | 7c | 170$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 127 | 27.6%35 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 58c | 140.68$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.75 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 21c | 130$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0179…5ff2backed No | 51c | 129$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.17 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 28c | 125.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 41c | 122.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39f6…c6efbacked No | 21c | 113.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Yes | 49c | 110$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 482 | 34%164 W · 318 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 41c | 105$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e8…fe94backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +7.6wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f0…8646backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec3…f32bbacked No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 15c | 96.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 91$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.41 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 15c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 31c | 79.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 21c | 76.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 519 | 27.6%143 W · 376 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2323…4c3fbacked Yes | 38c | 35.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 45c | 35.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 33c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 47c | 26.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…6626backed No | 74c | 24.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…a097backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of February 2 above $270?this page
- Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of February 2 above $230?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of February 2 above $245?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of February 2 above $250?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of February 2 above $255?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of February 2 above $260?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of February 2 above $265?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of February 2 above $275?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of February 2 above $280?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of February 2 above $285?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.