TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Pacers vs. Hornets: O/U 242.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,107
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,575

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,107 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6814…a9e7backed Over55c4,323$2,385 inLost-$2,384.93,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under44c3,831$1,686 inWon+$2,144.859,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10d4…69ebbacked Under50c1,000$500 inWon+$50062948.6%306 W · 323 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Over50c895.48$448 inLost-$448.4834255.6%190 W · 152 L+28.2wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+36%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Under58c211.47$123 inWon+$88.2695049.4%469 W · 481 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed Over41c191.95$79 inLost-$78.654153.7%22 W · 19 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Under53c121.48$64 inWon+$57.091,08450%542 W · 542 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Under53c121.48$64 inWon+$57.0961151.4%314 W · 297 L+17.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Under53c121.48$64 inWon+$57.0971654.1%387 W · 329 L+21.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed Under53c121.48$64 inWon+$57.0929849.3%147 W · 151 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d87…4e0dbacked Over50c104.76$52 inLost-$52.3834247.7%163 W · 179 L-8.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…e834backed Over41c89.99$37 inLost-$36.920547.8%98 W · 107 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Over22c85.15$19 inLost-$18.731,17050.3%588 W · 582 L+46.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x38c4…7c65backed Under50c72$36 inWon+$36.3629556.6%167 W · 128 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Over44c54.12$24 inLost-$23.811,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Over46c50.66$23 inLost-$23.182,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6659…4b69backed Under50c48.5$24 inWon+$24.38332.5%27 W · 56 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0eca…c56abacked Over44c38.17$17 inLost-$16.6452053.3%277 W · 243 L+29.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+3.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.