NBA · resolved market
Spread: Hornets (-16.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58bbd364546c91ff2286866837986c4c4b7b154840baa86b3d07afa80439c583
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hornetsof Hornets, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,878
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,578
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,878 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1333…173bbacked Hornets | 47c | 10,874$5,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,763.13 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Pacers | 58c | 8,434$4,873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,873.35 | 423 | 48%203 W · 220 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…831fbacked Hornets | 44c | 6,818$2,970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,848.08 | 192 | 46.4%89 W · 103 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Pacers | 53c | 6,295$3,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,336.52 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pacers | 46c | 3,618$1,651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650.89 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Hornets | 48c | 3,131$1,517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,613.57 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Hornets | 51c | 2,308$1,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,130.55 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4627backed Pacers | 53c | 1,834$972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$971.8 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Pacers | 43c | 1,730$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.61 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Pacers | 37c | 1,644$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.5 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Pacers | 53c | 1,314$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.2 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdda0…edaabacked Pacers | 2c | 1,085$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Pacers | 40c | 1,061$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.36 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Pacers | 37c | 1,007$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.79 | 844 | 43%363 W · 481 L | -40.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Pacers | 53c | 916.79$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.9 | 509 | 54.8%279 W · 230 L | +14.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Hornets | 69c | 757.41$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.31 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Hornets | 65c | 652.15$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.94 | 432 | 69.2%299 W · 133 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Pacers | 43c | 472.9$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.35 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Pacers | 31c | 343.97$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.2 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Hornets | 47c | 320$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.6 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Pacers | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.23 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Pacers | 21c | 261.27$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.82 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…87acbacked Pacers | 33c | 250$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.3 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37e1…a9cfbacked Pacers | 52c | 211.09$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.77 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4efc…6391backed Hornets | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Pacers | 55c | 194.6$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.03 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Pacers | 45c | 193.4$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.03 | 619 | 57.5%356 W · 263 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…fae9backed Pacers | 53c | 187.03$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.12 | 311 | 51.1%159 W · 152 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Pacers | 19c | 178.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Pacers | 39c | 169.23$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 918 | 46.2%424 W · 494 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04a7…164bbacked Pacers | 53c | 165.21$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.56 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x289e…4df8backed Pacers | 53c | 110.02$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.31 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0152…b455backed Pacers | 53c | 91.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 660 | 46.4%306 W · 354 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Pacers | 35c | 90.79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Hornets | 71c | 89.81$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Hornets | 71c | 88.95$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 369 | 49.6%183 W · 186 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae94…7efbbacked Hornets | 68c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 587 | 54.7%321 W · 266 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ea…639abacked Hornets | 67c | 73.27$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Pacers | 53c | 72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 348 | 49.7%173 W · 175 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Pacers | 44c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e3…206fbacked Hornets | 61c | 69.15$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Hornets | 65c | 65.42$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa106…5abbbacked Pacers | 53c | 64.16$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Pacers | 53c | 51.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 498 | 52.6%262 W · 236 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed Pacers | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 205 | 47.8%98 W · 107 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9e…f670backed Pacers | 53c | 48.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 113 | 45.1%51 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Pacers | 52c | 46.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 956 | 41.7%399 W · 557 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Pacers | 34c | 46.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 890 | 48.8%434 W · 456 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…b9b3backed Pacers | 53c | 45.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ac…5e19backed Pacers | 53c | 45.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 384 | 53.4%205 W · 179 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Hornets | 64c | 43.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb32…b21ebacked Pacers | 26c | 38.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 164 | 46.3%76 W · 88 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Pacers | 53c | 36.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Pacers | 52c | 35.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Hornets | 48c | 34.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 452 | 51.1%231 W · 221 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Hornets | 46c | 29.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Pacers | 43c | 26.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Hornets | 70c | 23.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 1,048 | 51.7%542 W · 506 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Hornets | 72c | 20.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb7…d873backed Pacers | 53c | 19.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hornets (-16.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Hornets (-9.5)Hornets won
- Kon Knueppel: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- LaMelo Ball: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Miles Bridges: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Moussa Diabaté: Points O/U 8.5No won
- Moussa Diabaté: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- Obi Toppin: Points O/U 9.5Yes won
- Pacers vs. HornetsHornets won
- Pacers vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Hornets: O/U 233.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Hornets: O/U 234.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Hornets: O/U 235.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Hornets: O/U 236.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Hornets: O/U 237.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Hornets: O/U 239.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Hornets: O/U 240.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Hornets: O/U 241.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Hornets: O/U 242.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Hornets: O/U 244.5Under won
- Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 23.5Yes won
- Quenton Jackson: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Spread: Hornets (-15.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-18.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-19.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hornets (-21.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Hornets (-22.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Hornets (-25.5)Pacers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.