Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19244f076dd44e327470253dde5c4805c6fb263f346cb22911933c20940ef2f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,331
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,305
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,331 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 29c | 938.12$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.44 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 654.27$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.34 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 404.58$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.7 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 403.68$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.78 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 71c | 302.22$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.22 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 12c | 299.15$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 283.8$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.16 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 28c | 228.58$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.06 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 25c | 221.62$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 29c | 215.33$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.74 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 188$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.11 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 74c | 180$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed Yes | 13c | 168$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 150 | 32%48 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 32c | 165.11$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.34 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 69c | 164.99$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.22 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 70c | 160$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 159.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 30c | 147.7$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.67 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 28c | 147.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 145.64$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.46 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 8c | 126.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 72c | 120.29$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 28c | 107.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 17c | 105.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 27c | 100.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 98.13$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.63 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 23c | 93.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3f…e0c1backed Yes | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 72c | 85.73$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf48c…8ec6backed Yes | 31c | 84.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 72c | 82.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 28c | 81.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 15c | 71.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c1…b2eebacked Yes | 16c | 67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 68c | 66.91$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 68c | 61.03$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x849b…0543backed Yes | 30c | 59.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 73c | 54.44$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 71c | 53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 71c | 50.32$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 72c | 46.19$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 32c | 45.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 26c | 43.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 70c | 42.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…025abacked Yes | 34c | 41.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 30c | 41.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ce…7b28backed No | 72c | 39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 29c | 36.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4abe…ac74backed No | 71c | 34.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 80c | 34.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 76c | 33.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 70c | 30.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 30.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 66c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 24.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 78c | 22.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 68c | 21.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 78c | 20.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 69c | 17.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1963…4a4cbacked No | 75c | 14.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.