Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2efbf67c9ed00676c5c770f5616c354b57c465d534f81da0f320f1bb27ed18a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,020
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,796
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,020 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8ad1…3556backed Yes | 37c | 2,184$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3240…f6ebbacked Yes | 47c | 781.27$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.64 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 65c | 686.37$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.79 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 54c | 662.48$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.4 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 64c | 522.81$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.89 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 41c | 513.83$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.24 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 55c | 460.84$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.5 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff32…7da9backed Yes | 9c | 450$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 37c | 390.85$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.29 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 55c | 360.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.51 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 58c | 309.73$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.78 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaef6…eaa7backed No | 46c | 296.91$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.31 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked No | 80c | 246.13$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.66 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 44c | 238.85$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.24 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 227.56$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.24 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 57c | 220.27$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.81 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 217$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.18 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 34c | 208.82$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 182.16$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.3 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cae…559abacked No | 59c | 166$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.06 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 67c | 163.08$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.2 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xace6…a1eabacked Yes | 38c | 158.23$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 38c | 151$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.36 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 45c | 150$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 46c | 148.79$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.88 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 70c | 147.9$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.37 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 41c | 141.94$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.21 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 43c | 136.08$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.55 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 123.97$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.04 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 41c | 121.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 74c | 121.23$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.94 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b41…1955backed Yes | 38c | 117.63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 34c | 115.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 43c | 107.39$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 32c | 107.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 43c | 104.65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.65 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1db…62afbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4a…089fbacked No | 39c | 98.25$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.93 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 63c | 94.68$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd4…34cabacked Yes | 45c | 94.43$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 63c | 88.16$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 50c | 85.65$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 48c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 56c | 76$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 26c | 74.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 51c | 70.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 45c | 67.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 53c | 67.08$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.46 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 51c | 64.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 49c | 64.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb26…55a5backed Yes | 44c | 64.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 25c | 62.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 32c | 60.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.89 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3f…e0c1backed Yes | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 68c | 56.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 59c | 55.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec64…17c9backed Yes | 54c | 55.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed Yes | 45c | 55.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 41c | 55.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.95 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed Yes | 38c | 54.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 30c | 53.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 45c | 52.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 30c | 49.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3286…1acdbacked No | 59c | 49.61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 54c | 47.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 51c | 46.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 43c | 45.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 46c | 43.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 75c | 43.28$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 43c | 42.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 38c | 42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed Yes | 52c | 41.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…a5fbbacked Yes | 55c | 41.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 38c | 39.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 47c | 39.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 47c | 37.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 53c | 37.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 50c | 37.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5604…912bbacked No | 59c | 36.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 62cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 47c | 35.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 37c | 34.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 42c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 45c | 33.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 47c | 33.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 53c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ea…46d5backed Yes | 50c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -5.6wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 43c | 32.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 39c | 30.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 65c | 30.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.