Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9eb430e4eb27d3b97f47d66982cbb1378134cbbcecfa7273c7915ec51141984
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,568
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,142
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,568 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 23c | 1,153$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$887.95 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 19c | 570.31$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.29 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 78c | 497.7$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.49 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 77c | 481.8$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.99 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 14c | 475.13$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.65 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 31c | 319.04$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.42 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 77c | 255.91$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.12 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 225$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.02 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 80c | 199.99$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.99 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 29c | 186.15$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 18c | 180$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.6 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 161.23$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.19 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 68c | 147.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.19 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 143.36$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.73 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 33c | 132.98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.77 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 130.39$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.99 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 30c | 127.71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 15c | 125.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.33 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 19c | 125.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 28c | 119.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 69c | 108.7$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.34 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 18c | 106.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 77c | 100.28$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 77c | 97.39$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 89.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.76 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 67c | 87.55$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.66 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 19c | 76.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.62 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Yes | 46c | 75.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.52 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 33c | 75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.59 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 67c | 74.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 50c | 74.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.31 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 40c | 73.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 14c | 72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 18c | 71.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.78 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 72c | 70.44$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 38c | 66.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 66c | 61.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.34 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 67c | 59.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 43c | 57.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 69c | 57.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 68c | 57.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 64c | 56.54$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 80c | 56.18$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 76c | 55.04$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 31c | 52.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 67c | 50.36$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked Yes | 34c | 50.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.21 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 60c | 49.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3f…e0c1backed Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked No | 67c | 44.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 69c | 43.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 27c | 39.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 29c | 38.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 28c | 38.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 35c | 37.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e04…80babacked Yes | 79c | 36.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 38c | 36.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 59c | 34.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 68c | 29.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 79c | 28.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 77c | 24.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed No | 69c | 21.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 20.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf3…ca4abacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 60c | 18.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 79c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 79c | 16.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…7e7bbacked No | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 117 | 74.4%87 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 75cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 70c | 14.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 74c | 14.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.