Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Central Arkansas Bears vs. North Alabama Lions
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1934a25955f175d0d76f7214e9f3cdb9933900a529d64c2857b424aa09a8277f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Central Arkansas Bearsof Central Arkansas Bears, North Alabama Lions
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,468
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,283
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,468 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefc0…4942backed Central Arkansas Bears | 52c | 1,711$893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.86 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +129.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb74c…9c72backed Central Arkansas Bears | 52c | 855.43$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3859…7359backed Central Arkansas Bears | 76c | 819$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0895…4ddebacked North Alabama Lions | 24c | 641$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d55…7cbabacked North Alabama Lions | 20c | 599.97$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.99 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +19.3wins | +0.27per pick | 22cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x9322…01e3backed North Alabama Lions | 48c | 586$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…9134backed Central Arkansas Bears | 52c | 586$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6eaa…4456backed North Alabama Lions | 48c | 578$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…f5ebbacked North Alabama Lions | 48c | 569$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…c83bbacked North Alabama Lions | 48c | 564$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…c527backed North Alabama Lions | 48c | 524$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…bcf0backed North Alabama Lions | 48c | 523$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +87.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…8adebacked Central Arkansas Bears | 76c | 474$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd07…0058backed North Alabama Lions | 24c | 474$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb8…ec8dbacked North Alabama Lions | 24c | 445$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e5…d252backed North Alabama Lions | 24c | 421$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 32cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82dd…5514backed Central Arkansas Bears | 76c | 421$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5a…e6aebacked Central Arkansas Bears | 52c | 291$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.1 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +156.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…f404backed Central Arkansas Bears | 76c | 288$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed North Alabama Lions | 35c | 247.85$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d79…33e4backed Central Arkansas Bears | 52c | 191.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd08…bd74backed North Alabama Lions | 48c | 178$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaae6…3d05backed North Alabama Lions | 48c | 113$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba3…8d20backed Central Arkansas Bears | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.1wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +111.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…f773backed Central Arkansas Bears | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…a2fbbacked North Alabama Lions | 23c | 81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 128 | 46.9%60 W · 68 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c1…c741backed Central Arkansas Bears | 65c | 79.3$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77da…f400backed Central Arkansas Bears | 80c | 61.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c78…f71bbacked Central Arkansas Bears | 80c | 60.19$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0aec…fdafbacked North Alabama Lions | 24c | 59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…93f7backed Central Arkansas Bears | 76c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked North Alabama Lions | 48c | 33.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed North Alabama Lions | 57c | 29.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb76d…9e18backed Central Arkansas Bears | 80c | 28.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Central Arkansas Bears | 80c | 25.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +86%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Central Arkansas Bears | 41c | 24.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc371…1e28backed North Alabama Lions | 59c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 196 | 41.8%82 W · 114 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf56f…9e25backed Central Arkansas Bears | 66c | 17.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.