Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x193fc06f30bca7e6a02fd36a77adc9424e19a9676a4ed0633141d1f220843ed7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,198
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,759
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,198 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f10…9059backed Yes | 44c | 309.98$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb4…4e22backed Yes | 38c | 227.89$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.29 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 203.15$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 17c | 196.83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 64c | 182.78$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.83 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 160.61$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.63 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 34c | 151.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.13 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 62c | 132.37$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.22 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5c…f7e9backed Yes | 38c | 130.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 69c | 130$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.41 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 121.88$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 31c | 120.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 59c | 117.84$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.75 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 70c | 108.55$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 24c | 105$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 48c | 104.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 65c | 103.95$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.7 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 30c | 99.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…0f8abacked Yes | 32c | 79.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 79$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 52c | 77.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df8…6c4ebacked Yes | 33c | 73.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 45c | 71.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 66c | 69$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 35c | 66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 34c | 65.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 25c | 61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 39c | 57.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 36c | 56.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 23c | 55.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 30c | 50.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 67c | 47.45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 44c | 44.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 66c | 40.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…0f61backed Yes | 37c | 40.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked Yes | 42c | 36.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 35.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9522…7af0backed Yes | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x69ac…0d2cbacked Yes | 44c | 31.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.32per pick | 47cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ed…3242backed No | 59c | 30.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 67c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d22…245cbacked Yes | 38c | 28.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 36c | 27.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 65c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 69c | 26.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 67c | 23.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 80c | 23.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 65c | 22.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 62c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 73c | 20.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x429c…5f41backed Yes | 50c | 20.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a09…263dbacked No | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15d0…1284backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -5.4wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 68c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 78c | 15.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on May 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on May 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on May 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.