Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9559e672cb55c7ca27e2a82d46a3037d6fc0f0cdbb0b7182994685463137982f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,854
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,408
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,854 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 75c | 334.82$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.55 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 286.57$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.16 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked No | 5c | 244.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 39c | 242.36$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.76 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 68c | 239.14$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.69 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb4…4e22backed Yes | 46c | 216.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.24 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 48c | 206.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.8 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 38c | 202.24$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.81 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 35c | 147.66$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.91 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 52c | 146.92$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.7 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 46c | 144.69$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.15 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 50c | 140.87$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.87 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…8bebbacked Yes | 65c | 136.74$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +21.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc705…b62fbacked Yes | 44c | 136.41$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.41 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 54c | 132.43$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.23 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…8d26backed Yes | 49c | 130.75$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.75 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc9…b10bbacked Yes | 35c | 129.73$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.73 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 71c | 112.1$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.98 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 44c | 106.08$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.36 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 50c | 102.22$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.03 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…0f8abacked No | 50c | 99.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 57c | 96.95$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.72 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf79…7376backed Yes | 45c | 95.55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.55 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 61c | 95.09$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.15 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 37c | 92.11$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.68 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 20c | 88.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5c…f7e9backed Yes | 48c | 81.01$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.05 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 80.93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…0208backed Yes | 48c | 78.62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.93 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 43c | 77.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.05 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 41c | 72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.21 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 23c | 70.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 71c | 70.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 77c | 70.09$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 50c | 69.28$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 44c | 68.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.56 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…a4d5backed No | 57c | 66.13$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 66$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.21 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df8…6c4ebacked Yes | 33c | 64.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.18 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 49c | 61.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.53 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 45c | 61.49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 35c | 61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.95 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…e535backed Yes | 41c | 59.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.13 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcedc…f98fbacked Yes | 46c | 58.54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 24c | 57.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 43c | 55.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 40c | 55.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 33c | 55.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.11 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 54c | 55.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 65c | 55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf759…0221backed Yes | 30c | 54.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.47 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 57c | 54.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 51c | 53.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 56c | 52.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa691…41f7backed No | 55c | 51.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 31c | 48.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 45c | 47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 37c | 46.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 54c | 44.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 44c | 43.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 42.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…7e34backed Yes | 49c | 42.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 36c | 41.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed Yes | 27c | 41.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x337d…6c88backed Yes | 49c | 40.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 48c | 40.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 61c | 39.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 44c | 39.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.27 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 55c | 39.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 63c | 39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed No | 57c | 37.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +13.9wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 54c | 37.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 46c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 42c | 35.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x723e…083ebacked Yes | 50c | 35.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -6.3wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked No | 57c | 35.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 46c | 32.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 54c | 31.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…8969backed Yes | 36c | 30.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad65…b49ebacked No | 52c | 30.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 77 | 71.4%55 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 48c | 29.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d22…245cbacked Yes | 42c | 28.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 57c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 47c | 26.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed Yes | 43c | 25.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 54c | 24.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 51c | 23.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc6…5e06backed Yes | 45c | 22.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f5…ee83backed Yes | 49c | 22.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on May 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on May 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.