Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19516d765e28d2d1f64885d7a23c216aea131ec4c47150e5aac3594c7964bcf1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,124
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,243
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,124 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 44c | 736.2$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.55 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 35c | 425$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.55 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 40c | 257.46$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.96 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 244.91$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.06 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 40c | 231.24$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 58c | 221$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.08 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 20c | 220.02$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 45c | 216.79$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.84 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 65c | 214$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.9 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 59c | 200.4$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.62 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 58c | 156.2$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.69 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 29c | 156$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 56c | 150$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 41c | 140.19$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 139.95$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.03 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 72c | 137.7$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 61c | 130.02$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.24 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 36c | 129.59$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.51 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 21c | 100.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 99.95$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.57 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 43c | 99.57$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 43c | 99.43$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.76 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 82$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 17c | 70.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 38c | 64.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed Yes | 29c | 61.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 149 | 19.5%29 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb11…6147backed No | 56c | 58.66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 28c | 56.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 70c | 52.46$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 20c | 50.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be4…dcbbbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 74cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 72c | 45.18$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 58c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 38c | 42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 38c | 42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…20bbbacked Yes | 26c | 39.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…5e1abacked No | 56c | 36.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 66c | 36.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 46c | 32.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked Yes | 32c | 32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 73c | 31.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 69c | 30.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 68c | 30.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81fe…80ecbacked No | 56c | 28.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 61c | 21.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 55c | 20.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50fc…36bebacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked No | 62c | 18.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 77c | 13.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on August 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C or below on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on August 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.