Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd66ecd874055e8c679ed98c1d691af06fc7d022b1a0b4f59a6d7c9e8a27959e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,994
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,283
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,994 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 38c | 1,527$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940.9 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 27c | 360.72$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.29 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 28c | 305$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.4 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 305$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.05 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 61c | 300$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 76c | 252.98$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.01 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 61c | 214$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.54 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 56c | 213.55$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.59 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 62c | 200$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 32c | 198.54$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.6 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 47c | 187.38$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.41 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 169.43$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.52 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 74c | 149.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.29 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 42c | 136.58$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.62 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 45c | 133.08$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.25 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 50c | 132.96$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.14 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 29c | 122.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.21 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 58c | 119.01$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.17 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 53c | 109.07$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.37 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 74c | 100.42$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.26 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56aa…9e31backed No | 51c | 98.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +26%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 95$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.46 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 77c | 93.02$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.01 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 36c | 91.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…5e1abacked Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.4 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x559c…aeedbacked Yes | 26c | 75.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.81 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 19c | 75.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.89 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 56c | 73.46$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.46 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 71.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.09 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 69.44$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 23c | 65.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.43 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed No | 28c | 60.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 31c | 55.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 36c | 55.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 74c | 52.54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 71c | 52$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 59c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 40c | 46.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked No | 31c | 46.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 67c | 45.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f52…895cbacked Yes | 41c | 43.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 41.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24d…947abacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked No | 47c | 39.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 39.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11ea…1676backed Yes | 39c | 39.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 65c | 38.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 53c | 38.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb11…6147backed No | 69c | 38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 66c | 36.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 70c | 33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 55c | 30.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6851…ec54backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 70c | 25.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c8…c0fabacked Yes | 54c | 25.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 43c | 24.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3e…3865backed Yes | 69c | 18.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +9.6wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x330d…0f46backed Yes | 74c | 13.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.49 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.24per pick | 58cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on August 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C or below on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.