MLB · resolved market
Colorado Rockies vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x196afe65a83ee8a7f3a8a62c6aab7ee9039276d4e7d3274a68a56eca0c4ef1f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,062
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,285
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,062 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 65c | 914.33$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.6 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 35c | 883$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.51 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 59c | 320.47$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.82 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x882a…cde2backed Over | 40c | 224.8$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.92 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 41c | 190.59$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.27 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 53c | 129.78$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.21 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 59c | 105.33$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.39 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 40c | 101.61$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 37c | 99.01$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.69 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0d…4987backed Under | 64c | 76.51$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +145%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88af…a083backed Under | 58c | 75.17$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x603c…c46dbacked Under | 66c | 74.64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f99…7e86backed Over | 42c | 62.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe67…dd7ebacked Over | 42c | 57.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 127 | 42.5%54 W · 73 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Under | 54c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 69c | 51.83$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac9…f5ddbacked Over | 49c | 49.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 43.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…9f8fbacked Under | 74c | 42.74$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +5.6wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Under | 62c | 39.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f4…0336backed Under | 51c | 32.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65cf…5cdebacked Under | 57c | 22.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Under | 65c | 19.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 221 | 54.3%120 W · 101 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Under | 64c | 17.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 167 | 34.7%58 W · 109 L | -17.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colorado Rockies vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Houston AstrosColorado Rockies won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Houston AstrosYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.