MLB · resolved market
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xedb038276daf5d6097883a522cb275e11c02180dbc9b77b86b8edc3e7ad29e9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Colorado Rockiesof Houston Astros, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,386
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,594
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,386 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Houston Astros | 49c | 23,084$11,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,335.52 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Colorado Rockies | 50c | 22,639$11,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,358.39 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Colorado Rockies | 54c | 4,594$2,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,096.8 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked Houston Astros | 47c | 4,082$1,937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,937 | 447 | 44.1%197 W · 250 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882a…cde2backed Colorado Rockies | 54c | 2,974$1,613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,360.22 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Colorado Rockies | 54c | 2,557$1,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,178.86 | 172 | 44.2%76 W · 96 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…7f78backed Houston Astros | 49c | 2,176$1,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,066.34 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Houston Astros | 50c | 1,453$721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.75 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Colorado Rockies | 54c | 1,286$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.47 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Houston Astros | 49c | 753.81$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.1 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Colorado Rockies | 53c | 532.63$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.08 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Houston Astros | 50c | 475.8$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.2 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Houston Astros | 20c | 463.29$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.37 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…a209backed Houston Astros | 47c | 427.46$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.85 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Houston Astros | 16c | 416.51$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.21 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Houston Astros | 35c | 399.78$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.19 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Colorado Rockies | 54c | 372.57$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.71 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Houston Astros | 5c | 352.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Houston Astros | 17c | 237$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51a4…02d6backed Colorado Rockies | 50c | 172.76$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.38 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4d…4c76backed Houston Astros | 52c | 166.3$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.19 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…3a3fbacked Colorado Rockies | 48c | 76.73$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 116 | 37.9%44 W · 72 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x231f…d047backed Colorado Rockies | 53c | 66.93$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fad…a796backed Houston Astros | 65c | 52.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Houston Astros | 49c | 49.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Colorado Rockies | 50c | 34.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Colorado Rockies | 51c | 31.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 221 | 54.3%120 W · 101 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Houston Astros | 51c | 27.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 127 | 61.4%78 W · 49 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Houston Astros | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8821…32c6backed Colorado Rockies | 74c | 23.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Houston AstrosColorado Rockies won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Houston AstrosYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.