MLB · resolved market
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0243b7d201f120bb52f437d6e02f772eeed901cbe0c3c1207728d4c6bdf82f7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Colorado Rockiesof Houston Astros, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,942
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,942 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Colorado Rockies | 39c | 6,409$2,503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,906.5 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882a…cde2backed Houston Astros | 60c | 3,419$2,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,068.6 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cea…b12dbacked Houston Astros | 57c | 2,864$1,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,632.26 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Houston Astros | 61c | 2,838$1,729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,729.35 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Colorado Rockies | 43c | 2,643$1,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,499.92 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Colorado Rockies | 40c | 2,015$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,214.8 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Colorado Rockies | 58c | 1,155$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.93 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Houston Astros | 49c | 1,088$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.11 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x623b…8facbacked Colorado Rockies | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2513…91fbbacked Houston Astros | 63c | 649.88$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.42 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Houston Astros | 63c | 576.68$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.01 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Houston Astros | 45c | 548.79$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.7 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Houston Astros | 42c | 528.56$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Houston Astros | 53c | 507.25$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.55 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Colorado Rockies | 39c | 495.11$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.05 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f08…5afbbacked Houston Astros | 42c | 416$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.72 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Colorado Rockies | 46c | 353.14$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.38 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Houston Astros | 61c | 339.9$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.34 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Houston Astros | 61c | 303.72$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.27 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Colorado Rockies | 43c | 294.77$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.02 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf09b…c40dbacked Houston Astros | 40c | 278.17$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Colorado Rockies | 60c | 245.25$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.88 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Colorado Rockies | 58c | 239.97$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.79 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Colorado Rockies | 46c | 176$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.81 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1a…d790backed Houston Astros | 42c | 175.34$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.64 | 99 | 45.5%45 W · 54 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51a4…02d6backed Colorado Rockies | 51c | 165.96$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.32 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Colorado Rockies | 36c | 144.24$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Houston Astros | 41c | 139.95$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.38 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Colorado Rockies | 37c | 134.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.78 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf50f…0586backed Houston Astros | 42c | 114.9$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.26 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +5.7wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x516c…4009backed Colorado Rockies | 60c | 114.03$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.61 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Colorado Rockies | 59c | 90.93$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.28 | 459 | 52.9%243 W · 216 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Colorado Rockies | 59c | 84.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Houston Astros | 52c | 76.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Houston Astros | 53c | 65.41$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…6f57backed Colorado Rockies | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Houston Astros | 49c | 59.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Houston Astros | 42c | 57.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Colorado Rockies | 40c | 50.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Houston Astros | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0afb…9a96backed Houston Astros | 40c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x231f…d047backed Houston Astros | 61c | 43.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fad…a796backed Colorado Rockies | 59c | 42.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Houston Astros | 42c | 36.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 979 | 44.4%435 W · 544 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5db7…a264backed Houston Astros | 61c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9bf…8ec8backed Houston Astros | 49c | 30.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Colorado Rockies | 66c | 29.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Houston Astros | 50c | 27.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Colorado Rockies | 49c | 26.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5761…b74cbacked Houston Astros | 56c | 24.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Colorado Rockies | 59c | 23.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Houston Astros | 57c | 20.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb882…fcabbacked Houston Astros | 64c | 19.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Houston Astros | 61c | 19.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 172 | 44.2%76 W · 96 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Colorado Rockies | 59c | 19.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Houston AstrosColorado Rockies won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Houston AstrosYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.