MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Houston Astros
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ff12499b2e80e5d065de65e26569d86e03607541580589c31e8ec0ac1e7d1a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,137
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,384
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,137 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 6c | 493.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf83d…367dbacked Yes | 49c | 349.99$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.5 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…208bbacked No | 51c | 282.93$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.99 | 181 | 51.4%93 W · 88 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked No | 50c | 156.72$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.95 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed No | 17c | 129.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 47c | 104.37$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.06 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5668…eababacked Yes | 55c | 96.46$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.93 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0edb…92c3backed Yes | 53c | 95.35$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.81 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed No | 51c | 95.16$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Yes | 49c | 75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 48c | 71.76$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.31 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87c0…244ebacked Yes | 50c | 58.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 219 | 48.4%106 W · 113 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 44c | 49.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 1,301 | 50.2%653 W · 648 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeafd…723fbacked No | 50c | 39.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -50%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Yes | 50c | 30.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeecd…4fefbacked No | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 196 | 56.1%110 W · 86 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2c…dac5backed Yes | 53c | 19.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 60 | 70%42 W · 18 L | +8.6wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Houston Astrosthis page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Houston AstrosColorado Rockies won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.