TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$96,923
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$97,318

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,923 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3dfb…abafbacked Over40c87,000$34,642 inWon+$52,357.721,38549.5%685 W · 700 L-4.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under60c76,815$46,314 inLost-$46,313.6510,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Under39c4,425$1,726 inLost-$1,725.548,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under59c3,438$2,028 inLost-$2,027.9811,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Under48c950.27$456 inLost-$456.134,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1621…f040backed Under3c750$20 inLost-$20614.9%3 W · 58 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-41.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a26…1589backed Under38c702.05$267 inLost-$266.788551.8%44 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Under61c662.83$404 inLost-$404.161,72550.1%864 W · 861 L-4.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d9a…dbe1backed Over41c396.07$162 inWon+$233.6810056%56 W · 44 L+12.8wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+34.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Under40c194.02$78 inLost-$77.612,14439.6%849 W · 1,295 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a8d…7688backed Over40c86.02$35 inWon+$51.3824149%118 W · 123 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Over40c62$25 inWon+$37.441,19550%597 W · 598 L+5.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x99d4…7c0dbacked Under62c60.69$37 inLost-$37.428948.1%139 W · 150 L-11.2wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over60c50.08$30 inWon+$20.081,17329%340 W · 833 L-0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d03…b8a6backed Under48c33.33$16 inLost-$164153.7%22 W · 19 L-4.0wins-0.10per pick63cpaid-15.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.