MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3bc355e2a9fd8ed9e525f2c5fc00c3364ef2bbc0f07032bd4a7f230e8d009288
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,203
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,967
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,203 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 44c | 7,814$3,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,343.07 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 51c | 6,296$3,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,220.81 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5b…d411backed Under | 66c | 3,417$2,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,269.11 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 28c | 2,276$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,630.76 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaf…d959backed Over | 45c | 1,111$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.11 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -5.2wins | -0.25per pick | 49cpaid | -50%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Over | 55c | 727.27$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.27 | 179 | 61.5%110 W · 69 L | +16.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9a…dbe1backed Over | 34c | 393.27$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.94 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +12.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 33c | 333.35$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 65c | 321.98$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.65 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 45c | 320.16$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.07 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 73c | 233.5$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.83 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Under | 51c | 193.68$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.18 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x009b…e769backed Over | 69c | 180.97$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 122 | 62.3%76 W · 46 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a76…3c34backed Under | 56c | 175.01$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.01 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 52c | 111.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.24 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 44c | 111.76$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.76 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 63c | 107.18$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.52 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 52c | 98.18$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.55 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 53c | 98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.57 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 32c | 93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda22…f431backed Over | 26c | 90.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.24 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 67c | 89.55$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 31c | 84.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 49c | 78.04$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.8 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 42c | 77.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 32c | 77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.36 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Under | 65c | 62.4$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b89…9f72backed Under | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 107 | 56.1%60 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 55c | 58.91$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68e1…b2fabacked Over | 29c | 52.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.19 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa54a…f771backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05de…3361backed Over | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 32c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 36c | 29.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f18…d6cabacked Under | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 49c | 23.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 55c | 18.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 3.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit TigersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.