MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xccf767fc84b4ed01da8b99017ac869a00042abf681dd324205d244fa22888462
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,262
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,775
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,262 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Yes | 48c | 1,543$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.12 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 52c | 870$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.35 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a76…3c34backed No | 53c | 382.08$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.58 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3252…1d21backed No | 52c | 302.04$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 340 | 45%153 W · 187 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 12c | 259.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Yes | 47c | 212$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.64 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fb…c3cabacked Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 76.9%30 W · 9 L | +5.7wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed No | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa384…3c9fbacked No | 52c | 97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.56 | 281 | 47.7%134 W · 147 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked No | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe602…f92cbacked No | 52c | 81.47$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…e6fcbacked No | 46c | 71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +118%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…ed42backed Yes | 50c | 63.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4c…d171backed No | 52c | 61.54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.54 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Yes | 48c | 59.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 49c | 57.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 51c | 51.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8541…5c16backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 73c | 49.19$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96b…7d92backed No | 46c | 43.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 190 | 41.1%78 W · 112 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9a…dbe1backed Yes | 49c | 40.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +12.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed No | 52c | 38.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 252 | 48.8%123 W · 129 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeecd…4fefbacked Yes | 55c | 37.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 193 | 56.5%109 W · 84 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Yes | 59c | 36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Yes | 48c | 31.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa89…0910backed No | 53c | 26.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 43c | 25.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44d3…6fd9backed No | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2288…1a0dbacked No | 65c | 18.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigersthis page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 3.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.