MLB · resolved market
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae926445ce32378a0db811a3be67ea022ead58e64bf6fdcc6a71add26df1f465
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Detroit Tigersof Kansas City Royals, Detroit Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,580
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,535
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,580 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Kansas City Royals | 33c | 3,191$1,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,046.96 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Detroit Tigers | 67c | 2,121$1,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.93 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2735…42ebbacked Detroit Tigers | 67c | 731$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.23 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Kansas City Royals | 29c | 584.08$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.25 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Detroit Tigers | 70c | 569.11$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.59 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Detroit Tigers | 72c | 500$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.87 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Kansas City Royals | 31c | 340.73$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.98 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Detroit Tigers | 67c | 267$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.88 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Kansas City Royals | 32c | 214.02$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.49 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Detroit Tigers | 67c | 201.9$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.58 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Kansas City Royals | 34c | 147.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Kansas City Royals | 16c | 146$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Kansas City Royals | 19c | 131.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Detroit Tigers | 76c | 131$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 91 | 65.9%60 W · 31 L | +11.1wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Detroit Tigers | 77c | 129.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda22…f431backed Kansas City Royals | 27c | 97.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Detroit Tigers | 65c | 77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Kansas City Royals | 26c | 55.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Kansas City Royals | 34c | 52.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Kansas City Royals | 33c | 36.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Kansas City Royals | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Detroit Tigers | 79c | 29.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab95…6c79backed Detroit Tigers | 70c | 27.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Detroit Tigers | 80c | 24.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Detroit Tigers | 69c | 20.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Detroit Tigers | 74c | 16.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Detroit Tigers | 74c | 14.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…45d7backed Detroit Tigers | 80c | 12.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 3.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit TigersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.