TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on April 2?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$105,069
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$105,738

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,069 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes0c13,381$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6221547.4%102 W · 113 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9a7…8a4dbacked Yes1c2,950$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.291729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-45.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe8c…e526backed Yes1c931.79$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.98727.6%24 W · 63 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-27%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes17c732.06$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.7317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes20c665.04$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.741,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes32c436.17$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.867146.5%33 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes4c401.95$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.942,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No77c388.21$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.643,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes14c348.21$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.587,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes29c341.48$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.7110120.8%21 W · 80 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes21c339.15$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.457,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef4e…a79abacked Yes29c321.61$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b20…62cbbacked No73c312.13$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.2311874.6%88 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaba5…9a02backed Yes31c300.25$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.12835.7%10 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-30.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No68c294.1$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.112,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes29c248.3$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.031,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c82…f315backed Yes27c243.64$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.9913930.2%42 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No79c229.73$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.281,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes12c210.19$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.761,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae07…8059backed Yes16c198.54$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7743525.3%110 W · 325 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No73c196.15$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.14,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes7c191.78$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.446,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x035a…ff68backed Yes24c173.99$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2331542.9%135 W · 180 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd271…37e0backed Yes18c169.07$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7731029.7%92 W · 218 L-1.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe481…32a3backed Yes13c154.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.673043.3%13 W · 17 L+4.6wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+58.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No71c150.43$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.862,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf74…d478backed No72c150$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42955.6%5 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.19per pick75cpaid-26.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes29c142.95$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.091,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4973…5527backed Yes16c128.3$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0630046.7%140 W · 160 L-8.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfabc…7178backed No77c126.49$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.769176.9%70 W · 21 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick74cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3319…977abacked Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1026426.9%71 W · 193 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f57…c3acbacked No79c123.7$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.947946.8%37 W · 42 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+20.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec42…5ffbbacked No78c115.93$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.6715176.8%116 W · 35 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick76cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6372…4a25backed No66c109.31$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.8341070.5%289 W · 121 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes22c109.23$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.41,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0943…1019backed Yes43c108.81$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.171070%7 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+20.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3df9…2bddbacked Yes18c105$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6519123.6%45 W · 146 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes24c101.22$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x69dd…0d41backed Yes34c99.5$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.831520%3 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc63a…26a0backed Yes31c98.16$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.942532%8 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-41.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e7…10c0backed Yes18c98.06$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183132.3%10 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-35.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes32c97.53$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5619541.5%81 W · 114 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2be…4a4cbacked Yes20c96.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.62445.8%11 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x261e…c09fbacked Yes20c95.89$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4611835.6%42 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f7f…9818backed Yes24c94.9$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.11475%3 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.43per pick32cpaid+141.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb242…eb89backed Yes31c89.09$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.48149.4%40 W · 41 L-8.3wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-21.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9723…5bdebacked Yes29c83.94$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.153435.3%12 W · 22 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-21.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes16c82.94$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.559,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe864…ce58backed Yes30c82.52$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.76825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-53.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa312…0357backed Yes34c78.37$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.323441.2%14 W · 20 L+4.9wins+0.15per pick27cpaid+82.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf2b5…47bfbacked No63c75.2$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.7617633.5%59 W · 117 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes27c74.01$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7663538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e04…d367backed No73c72.38$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.348969.7%62 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes31c70.45$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9364333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes30c69.37$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7818534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No73c65.14$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.952571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd84…109dbacked Yes20c64.57$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1922028.2%62 W · 158 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9fd…f242backed Yes28c63.66$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.693351.5%17 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e93…78a6backed Yes30c62.51$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.626418.8%12 W · 52 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-48.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No71c59.06$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.842,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a2b…298dbacked Yes36c57.67$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes26c57.31$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1411…6b02backed Yes33c56.75$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.661822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd637…7617backed Yes38c51.5$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4913533.3%45 W · 90 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52f3…92d6backed Yes20c51$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.084314%6 W · 37 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-24.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4fb4…695fbacked No69c50.75$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.875773.7%42 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x108f…ee30backed Yes34c50.46$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.341233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-32.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1098…10a7backed Yes33c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.541733.8%141 W · 276 L-17.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b39…22f7backed Yes32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166319%12 W · 51 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-56.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf336…beb1backed Yes25c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick38cpaid-27.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d84…4ff1backed No73c49.07$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.0629558%171 W · 124 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0de9…3d1fbacked No76c48.31$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.5916036.3%58 W · 102 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes27c47.83$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9174338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x31e2…a655backed No74c47.51$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.456275.8%47 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x977d…e7bdbacked Yes32c47.3$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed Yes30c46.18$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8545236.5%165 W · 287 L+20.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa36b…1d89backed Yes32c44.01$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.955538.4%213 W · 342 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8454…3587backed No75c43.93$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.0827376.6%209 W · 64 L+0.5wins0.00per pick76cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff18…da47backed Yes29c43$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.326434.1%90 W · 174 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x520e…b360backed Yes31c42.69$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f18…5b28backed No74c40.53$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5226566.4%176 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed No60c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x16d9…f0b0backed No75c38.83$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5728648.3%138 W · 148 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5944…a957backed No76c38.21$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.273976.9%30 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick73cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe744…67a8backed No68c37.29$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9315477.9%120 W · 34 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick75cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes27c37.14$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0319123%44 W · 147 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0198…133bbacked No72c33.99$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5218452.2%96 W · 88 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcafd…b861backed No70c32.98$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.897272.2%52 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick71cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ef5…0366backed Yes32c32.15$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.292339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd41f…bb32backed No76c32.13$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.733275%24 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick74cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f3d…f35abacked No76c32.11$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.712491.7%22 W · 2 L+5.8wins+0.24per pick67cpaid+34.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x8beb…1425backed Yes34c31.11$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1dfe…b4f9backed No70c27.61$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.286550.8%33 W · 32 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No64c27.49$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.0227167.2%182 W · 89 L+1.2wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ebc…4d57backed No72c27.08$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.64771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb81…7b82backed No69c26.24$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1313053.1%69 W · 61 L-7.2wins-0.06per pick59cpaid+0.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb1b7…fc8ebacked No77c25.29$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.741573.3%11 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick69cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x754b…d06abacked No65c25.22$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8221272.6%154 W · 58 L+22.8wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+21.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked No71c24.99$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.248672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85b5…1948backed No70c22.94$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.858551.8%44 W · 41 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.