Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b7827403831a1cffaa643d020b077162ea16da2de50530ea8a17dcf29fa0b49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $85,707
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $97,030
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,707 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 187 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa7c7…bc56backed No | 3c | 10,500$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 2c | 3,981$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.62 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 14c | 2,084$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.11 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 8c | 1,642$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.06 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda18…4282backed No | 2c | 1,431$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 9c | 1,075$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.8 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 9c | 1,046$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.27 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa20c…451abacked No | 12c | 999.99$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 6c | 980.3$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.37 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 77c | 917.89$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.2 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8be2…214bbacked No | 14c | 899.68$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.27 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 3c | 730.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe15e…d4f8backed No | 6c | 714$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 4c | 534.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 6c | 500$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27dd…b696backed Yes | 70c | 495.78$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.8 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 70c | 490.18$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.4 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb598…1d08backed No | 31c | 479.67$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 417.29$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.05 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1800…0950backed No | 16c | 416.7$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3837…c507backed No | 6c | 397.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 47c | 394.96$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4901…e58abacked No | 35c | 374.53$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 33c | 358.74$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.46 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9317…5a5fbacked No | 4c | 346.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8091…3178backed No | 23c | 343.09$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.27 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes | 71c | 340.94$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.09 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 49c | 332.34$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.03 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc733…851abacked No | 4c | 308.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2be…4a4cbacked Yes | 65c | 297.12$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.26 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff65…f1cdbacked No | 15c | 294.7$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.94 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 39c | 279.42$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.74 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 44c | 264.47$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.48 | 101 | 20.8%21 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 36c | 264.13$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.71 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27bf…7a6bbacked Yes | 75c | 261.41$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.12 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 8c | 258.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 64c | 248.55$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.02 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 6c | 242.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 21c | 222.27$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.71 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe40…a632backed Yes | 78c | 214.24$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab8…6743backed Yes | 77c | 211.34$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.03 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8682…15a9backed Yes | 51c | 204.78$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.16 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 32c | 200.65$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 78c | 196.58$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.61 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1622…7d90backed No | 26c | 192.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 49c | 192.42$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.36 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe472…4360backed Yes | 40c | 189.15$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.9 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c3…ac62backed Yes | 79c | 175.23$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.89 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e7…666abacked No | 13c | 171.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…c512backed No | 24c | 170.43$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.03 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…ba22backed Yes | 52c | 167.88$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.75 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked Yes | 65c | 163.57$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.9 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0b…55e1backed Yes | 74c | 150$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8783…d1aabacked Yes | 77c | 141.69$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 45c | 137.82$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.39 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 36c | 136.19$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.93 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ca…e0f0backed Yes | 79c | 135.37$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e7…10c0backed Yes | 52c | 134.94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.23 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfab…fe90backed No | 41c | 133.68$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.85 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed No | 17c | 131.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 74c | 131.13$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.72 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc45…2957backed No | 19c | 121.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 68c | 121.66$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.12 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa312…0357backed Yes | 50c | 120.59$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.13 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 74c | 110.87$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.05 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b0…7efcbacked No | 21c | 110.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…0937backed Yes | 34c | 109.62$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.85 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 45c | 109.24$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.43 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 67c | 107.56$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.56 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 17c | 105.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d21…07cfbacked No | 13c | 105$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09c3…5bf0backed Yes | 74c | 104.14$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe731…55b9backed Yes | 49c | 103.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.01 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 45c | 103.23$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.07 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed No | 22c | 101.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b5…1948backed No | 25c | 100.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 47c | 100.54$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 61c | 100.12$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc273…51eabacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba04…310bbacked Yes | 78c | 99.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 44c | 98.56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.75 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02bb…b7b9backed No | 50c | 95.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.43per pick | 63cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 28c | 92.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.46 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad2e…95f1backed Yes | 32c | 91.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.87 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.29per pick | 42cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 73c | 89.46$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.58 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 73c | 87.76$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…26babacked No | 16c | 86.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 45c | 84.61$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.62 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9723…5bdebacked Yes | 51c | 83.91$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.12 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 54c | 83.49$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.49 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…2dfcbacked Yes | 29c | 78.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.26 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1377…6aadbacked Yes | 78c | 77.84$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc63a…26a0backed Yes | 55c | 76.12$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 31c | 76.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.44 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 56c | 74.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 29c | 73.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.36 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…4908backed Yes | 40c | 73.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.89 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x025c…5b44backed No | 49c | 71.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.12 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or higher on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C or below on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on April 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.