TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 2?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$85,707
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$97,030

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,707 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 187 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa7c7…bc56backed No3c10,500$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315170%0 W · 17 L-2.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x100a…c6cebacked No2c3,981$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.622554.3%11 W · 244 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+221.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed No14c2,084$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.1166944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed No8c1,642$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.0634319.5%67 W · 276 L+22.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xda18…4282backed No2c1,431$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.52846.4%13 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d9c…1450backed No9c1,075$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.814251.4%73 W · 69 L-21.9wins-0.15per pick67cpaid-29.8%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed No9c1,046$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.2776924.3%187 W · 582 L-16.3wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-40.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa20c…451abacked No12c999.99$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1228016.3%13 W · 67 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-73.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No6c980.3$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.372,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes77c917.89$703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.26,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8be2…214bbacked No14c899.68$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.273520%7 W · 28 L-4.2wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-55.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked No3c730.36$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.171,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe15e…d4f8backed No6c714$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No4c534.47$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9757044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No6c500$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4228737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x27dd…b696backed Yes70c495.78$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.83644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes70c490.18$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.431341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb598…1d08backed No31c479.67$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes32c417.29$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.0517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1800…0950backed No16c416.7$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3837…c507backed No6c397.37$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9410444.2%46 W · 58 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes47c394.96$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2111,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4901…e58abacked No35c374.53$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.9757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid-15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes33c358.74$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.461,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9317…5a5fbacked No4c346.11$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.843834.2%13 W · 25 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-36.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8091…3178backed No23c343.09$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.276137.7%23 W · 38 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes71c340.94$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.097146.5%33 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x035a…ff68backed No49c332.34$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.0331542.9%135 W · 180 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc733…851abacked No4c308.55$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4960%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2be…4a4cbacked Yes65c297.12$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.262445.8%11 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff65…f1cdbacked No15c294.7$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.945518.2%10 W · 45 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-22.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes39c279.42$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.747,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes44c264.47$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.4810120.8%21 W · 80 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No36c264.13$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.714,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27bf…7a6bbacked Yes75c261.41$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.121250%6 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-18.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed No8c258.04$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.761,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No64c248.55$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.023,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No6c242.19$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4963656.1%357 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0198…133bbacked No21c222.27$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7118452.2%96 W · 88 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe40…a632backed Yes78c214.24$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.13250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ab8…6743backed Yes77c211.34$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.031030%3 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick52cpaid-58.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8682…15a9backed Yes51c204.78$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.161250%6 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-17.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No32c200.65$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.71,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xae07…8059backed Yes23c200$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15443525.3%110 W · 325 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes78c196.58$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.6132444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1622…7d90backed No26c192.53$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No49c192.42$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.368,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe472…4360backed Yes40c189.15$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.95328.3%15 W · 38 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3c3…ac62backed Yes79c175.23$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.891241.7%5 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-44.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9e7…666abacked No13c171.97$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6550%0 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xae91…c512backed No24c170.43$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.03633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-34.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9502…ba22backed Yes52c167.88$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.7511146.8%52 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No30c166.66$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2347…5adfbacked Yes65c163.57$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.911938.7%46 W · 73 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c0b…55e1backed Yes74c150$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.752955.2%16 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8783…d1aabacked Yes77c141.69$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.591662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No45c137.82$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.393,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes36c136.19$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.931,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1ca…e0f0backed Yes79c135.37$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.43366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e7…10c0backed Yes52c134.94$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.233132.3%10 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-35.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfab…fe90backed No41c133.68$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.852060%12 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-17.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36bb…e181backed No17c131.92$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9112033.3%40 W · 80 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd637…7617backed Yes74c131.13$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.7213533.3%45 W · 90 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc45…2957backed No19c121.92$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.963237.5%12 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-33.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No68c121.66$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.121,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa312…0357backed Yes50c120.59$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.133441.2%14 W · 20 L+4.9wins+0.15per pick27cpaid+82.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5e5d…9491backed No74c110.87$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.0530859.1%182 W · 126 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1b0…7efcbacked No21c110.17$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.643770.3%26 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick64cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3a6…0937backed Yes34c109.62$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.851631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd271…37e0backed Yes45c109.24$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.4331029.7%92 W · 218 L-1.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6372…4a25backed No67c107.56$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.5641070.5%289 W · 121 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No17c105.27$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d21…07cfbacked No13c105$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.453324.2%8 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.11per pick14cpaid+63.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x09c3…5bf0backed Yes74c104.14$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.351764.7%11 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe731…55b9backed Yes49c103.37$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.013847.4%18 W · 20 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No45c103.23$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.071,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d7e…ad97backed No22c101.41$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2211956.3%67 W · 52 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85b5…1948backed No25c100.63$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.588551.8%44 W · 41 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc5b…619abacked No47c100.54$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.9727464.6%177 W · 97 L-1.2wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf30a…3583backed Yes61c100.12$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.316936.1%61 W · 108 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc273…51eabacked Yes29c100$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$712030%6 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba04…310bbacked Yes78c99.99$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221450%7 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes44c98.56$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.7519541.5%81 W · 114 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02bb…b7b9backed No50c95.67$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.48520%1 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.43per pick63cpaid-70.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbd84…109dbacked Yes28c92.62$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.4622028.2%62 W · 158 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad2e…95f1backed Yes32c91.17$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.87771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.29per pick42cpaid+76.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No73c89.46$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.5831868.6%218 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked Yes73c87.76$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.261,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a43…26babacked No16c86.21$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.869346.2%43 W · 50 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes45c84.61$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.6265043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9723…5bdebacked Yes51c83.91$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.123435.3%12 W · 22 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-21.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes54c83.49$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.4920534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f27…2dfcbacked Yes29c78.02$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.263132.3%10 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1377…6aadbacked Yes78c77.84$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.19933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-37.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc63a…26a0backed Yes55c76.12$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.352532%8 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-41.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes31c76.04$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.4418534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes56c74.99$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.2563538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes29c73.74$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.3674338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ada…4908backed Yes40c73.38$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.897959.5%47 W · 32 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+13.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x025c…5b44backed No49c71.45$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.126624.2%16 W · 50 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.