Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cfbeaeeac83731c63f011e263c8b7441a4a014d0894525965266b39d41084d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $140,649
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $132,674
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $140,649 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfca3…93eabacked Yes | 3c | 65,555$1,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,995.4 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -70%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 0c | 12,101$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3a…a709backed No | 78c | 5,849$4,581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,267.22 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb598…1d08backed Yes | 36c | 3,731$1,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 3c | 1,461$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 14c | 901.84$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.12 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 6c | 880.23$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed No | 74c | 694.15$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.59 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 10c | 693.53$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.79 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 71c | 569.36$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.14 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 551.17$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.47 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 79c | 550.82$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.78 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 532.81$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.69 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 22c | 502.5$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.97 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5730…891ebacked Yes | 21c | 485.06$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.43 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec28…ea98backed Yes | 12c | 455.96$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.63 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 5c | 451.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e93…78a6backed Yes | 14c | 433.25$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.38 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 10c | 415.82$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.64 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 9c | 399.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9317…5a5fbacked Yes | 6c | 378.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 5c | 330.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked No | 77c | 299.04$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.98 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa20c…451abacked Yes | 8c | 295.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 17c | 294.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.61 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 33c | 271.32$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.59 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 30c | 266.88$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.14 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked Yes | 5c | 264.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc733…851abacked Yes | 4c | 249.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab8…6743backed No | 77c | 243.4$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.31 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 14c | 231.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 11c | 229.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 8c | 223.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 29c | 217.6$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.06 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 8c | 213.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 195.96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7c5d…5a0fbacked Yes | 15c | 188.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…a6dcbacked Yes | 10c | 187.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -67%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 7c | 181.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 14c | 177.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 29c | 157.02$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.26 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 7c | 147.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 13c | 138.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 26c | 136.66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 13c | 134.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 9c | 133.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa312…0357backed Yes | 14c | 133.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf94…f69dbacked Yes | 16c | 131.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 20c | 130$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 9c | 129.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8e…20fabacked Yes | 31c | 127.54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked No | 78c | 125.43$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 65c | 124.13$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 17c | 123.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 30c | 112.12$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03e4…2d3dbacked Yes | 13c | 100.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 64c | 100.12$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.36 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfc…98e0backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…66b0backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc273…51eabacked Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e7…10c0backed Yes | 12c | 98.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4901…e58abacked Yes | 35c | 94.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…889abacked Yes | 25c | 93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 12c | 92.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbafc…d03fbacked Yes | 13c | 88.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +29%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 36c | 87.72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x477e…7d74backed Yes | 26c | 81.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a77…50e6backed No | 15c | 81.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.22 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5625…0da9backed Yes | 18c | 81.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9fd…f242backed Yes | 18c | 79.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 70c | 74.68$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0057…b1c7backed Yes | 30c | 74.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 148 | 26.4%39 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…5eafbacked Yes | 33c | 70.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27dd…b696backed Yes | 29c | 69.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6889…f2e3backed No | 73c | 66.97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07ac…ab30backed Yes | 16c | 66.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x290c…ab10backed Yes | 24c | 63.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 22c | 62.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fb…ae7bbacked Yes | 19c | 55.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +35%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…4908backed Yes | 36c | 54.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 62c | 51.96$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fb…4b6ebacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0b…55e1backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked No | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60e4…f926backed Yes | 33c | 41.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes | 39c | 39.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 107 | 32.7%35 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3417…b146backed Yes | 37c | 37.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 71c | 35.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 80c | 35.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…7fdbbacked Yes | 33c | 34.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked No | 60c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb6…2ff6backed No | 76c | 32.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b28…d9c1backed No | 65c | 29.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d52…c5aabacked No | 63c | 24.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or higher on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C or below on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on April 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.