TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 2?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$140,649
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$132,674

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $140,649 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfca3…93eabacked Yes3c65,555$1,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,995.41816.7%3 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-70%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes0c12,101$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.883,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec3a…a709backed No78c5,849$4,581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,267.225451.9%28 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb598…1d08backed Yes36c3,731$1,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,350.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b28…d021backed Yes3c1,461$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.628718.5%53 W · 234 L+15.9wins+0.06per pick13cpaid+113.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes14c901.84$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.126,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes6c880.23$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.32,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed No74c694.15$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.5931341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes10c693.53$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.7933620.2%68 W · 268 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+8.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5e5d…9491backed No71c569.36$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.1430859.1%182 W · 126 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes21c551.17$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.4717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No79c550.82$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.781,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes15c532.81$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.697,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes22c502.5$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.971,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5730…891ebacked Yes21c485.06$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.431020%2 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-24.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec28…ea98backed Yes12c455.96$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.63812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick30cpaid-72.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes5c451.86$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9361929.1%180 W · 439 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e93…78a6backed Yes14c433.25$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.386418.8%12 W · 52 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-48.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes10c415.82$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6464333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae22…8794backed Yes9c399.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3546232.9%152 W · 310 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9317…5a5fbacked Yes6c378.12$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.243834.2%13 W · 25 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-36.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes5c330.4$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4219123%44 W · 147 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea74…2fadbacked No77c299.04$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.9812068.3%82 W · 38 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick67cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa20c…451abacked Yes8c295.79$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.558016.3%13 W · 67 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-73.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes17c294.25$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6176924.3%187 W · 582 L-16.3wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-40.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e24…7379backed Yes33c271.32$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.5945619.1%87 W · 369 L-11.8wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xae07…8059backed Yes30c266.88$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.1443525.3%110 W · 325 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked Yes5c264.42$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9831649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc733…851abacked Yes4c249.07$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.260%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ab8…6743backed No77c243.4$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.311030%3 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick52cpaid-58.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes14c231.1$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.331,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes11c229.88$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.118,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes8c223.31$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.161,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes29c217.6$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.063,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes8c213.98$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.592,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf30a…3583backed Yes17c200$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3416936.1%61 W · 108 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes19c195.96$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x7c5d…5a0fbacked Yes15c188.89$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-37.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…a6dcbacked Yes10c187.35$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.881915.8%3 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-67%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes7c181.59$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.31,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd271…37e0backed Yes14c177.34$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7131029.7%92 W · 218 L-1.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes29c157.02$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.2648331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes7c147.29$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.297,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes13c138.21$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.389,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes26c136.66$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.661,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes13c134.98$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5594919.7%187 W · 762 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes9c133.3$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.071,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa312…0357backed Yes14c133.17$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.193441.2%14 W · 20 L+4.9wins+0.15per pick27cpaid+82.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdf94…f69dbacked Yes16c131.96$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.31926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-35%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes20c130$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2638547.5%183 W · 202 L+16.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+24.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes9c129.98$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.71,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b8e…20fabacked Yes31c127.54$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.451020%2 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-24.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1d4…a31ebacked No78c125.43$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.1216651.2%85 W · 81 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No65c124.13$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.295852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes17c123.47$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.431,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x052e…ade1backed Yes30c112.12$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0728329.3%83 W · 200 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x03e4…2d3dbacked Yes13c100.75$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.264850%24 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No64c100.12$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.362,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bfc…98e0backed Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14348.8%3 W · 31 L-4.2wins-0.12per pick21cpaid-76.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc2be…66b0backed Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc273…51eabacked Yes35c99.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352030%6 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d7e…ad97backed Yes15c99.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1511956.3%67 W · 52 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e7…10c0backed Yes12c98.19$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.673132.3%10 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-35.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4901…e58abacked Yes35c94.49$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.49757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid-15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97df…889abacked Yes25c93$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.972556%14 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+26.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes12c92.62$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1144945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbafc…d03fbacked Yes13c88.57$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.561540%6 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+29%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x95d4…839abacked Yes36c87.72$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4128119.9%56 W · 225 L-12.9wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-20.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x477e…7d74backed Yes26c81.89$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.292317.4%4 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-47.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a77…50e6backed No15c81.8$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.221464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5625…0da9backed Yes18c81.4$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9fd…f242backed Yes18c79.77$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.263351.5%17 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No70c74.68$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.531,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0057…b1c7backed Yes30c74.58$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0314826.4%39 W · 109 L+0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc250…5eafbacked Yes33c70.36$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.296325.4%16 W · 47 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x27dd…b696backed Yes29c69.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.393644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6889…f2e3backed No73c66.97$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.085145.1%23 W · 28 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x07ac…ab30backed Yes16c66.07$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.46719.4%13 W · 54 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x290c…ab10backed Yes24c63.2$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.213844.7%17 W · 21 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+21.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes22c62.61$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4774338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2fb…ae7bbacked Yes19c55.66$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.539028.9%26 W · 64 L+6.8wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+35%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8ada…4908backed Yes36c54.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.527959.5%47 W · 32 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+13.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7ce1…c33abacked No62c51.96$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5714961.1%91 W · 58 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.51,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5fb…4b6ebacked Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151040%4 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-28.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c0b…55e1backed Yes32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.852955.2%16 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2b5…47bfbacked No65c46.15$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.1517633.5%59 W · 117 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60e4…f926backed Yes33c41.89$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.771833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes39c39.88$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5510732.7%35 W · 72 L-8.9wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-21.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3417…b146backed Yes37c37.62$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.74366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+64.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x754b…d06abacked No71c35.86$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.4521272.6%154 W · 58 L+22.8wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+21.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf576…a786backed No80c35.8$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.1637669.4%261 W · 115 L+1.6wins0.00per pick69cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d4d…7fdbbacked Yes33c34.44$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.365735.1%20 W · 37 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10b0…137ebacked No60c33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.213663.2%86 W · 50 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick64cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cb6…2ff6backed No76c32.39$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.939943.4%43 W · 56 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4aa1…596cbacked No76c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0921448.6%104 W · 110 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b28…d9c1backed No65c29.81$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.36033.3%20 W · 40 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d52…c5aabacked No63c24.89$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2810359.2%61 W · 42 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.