Fifa International · resolved market
Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19b50e58b8352eb7ba6a8face1e29214d1cbca29bf49d325189e089d0ac52072
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,971
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,920
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,971 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked No | 10c | 2,817$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.25 | 252 | 44.8%113 W · 139 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 49c | 707.08$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.91 | 221 | 25.8%57 W · 164 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 19c | 699.55$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.37 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 9c | 600$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255f…290fbacked No | 9c | 552$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed No | 75c | 551.64$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.73 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked No | 49c | 535.28$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.55 | 878 | 37.2%327 W · 551 L | -41.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 31c | 462.99$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.53 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 12c | 339.23$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.22 | 172 | 17.4%30 W · 142 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 54c | 335.52$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.09 | 457 | 36.3%166 W · 291 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 49c | 329.7$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.78 | 656 | 51.7%339 W · 317 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 8c | 320$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 302 | 41.4%125 W · 177 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 54c | 272.95$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.58 | 212 | 39.6%84 W · 128 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf79c…cb96backed No | 34c | 240.34$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.95 | 920 | 38.5%354 W · 566 L | -21.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 64c | 237.82$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.68 | 438 | 35.8%157 W · 281 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 66c | 207.54$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.33 | 460 | 47.2%217 W · 243 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed No | 8c | 200.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 134 | 37.3%50 W · 84 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a31…1164backed No | 9c | 167.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 186 | 36.6%68 W · 118 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 166.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.64 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 28c | 165.09$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 427 | 37.2%159 W · 268 L | -15.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c56…e06fbacked No | 77c | 130.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 47c | 130$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 130 | 60.8%79 W · 51 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked No | 46c | 118$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.24 | 206 | 52.9%109 W · 97 L | +14.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa97f…d6d2backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 15c | 79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 363 | 35.8%130 W · 233 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc9…525ebacked No | 22c | 67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 116 | 11.2%13 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 74c | 63.8$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.46 | 217 | 49.8%108 W · 109 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 77c | 55.17$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.38 | 357 | 34.5%123 W · 234 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d21…6dfebacked Yes | 22c | 50.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.59 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 62c | 49.76$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 335 | 38.8%130 W · 205 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed No | 28c | 44.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 1,601 | 47.8%765 W · 836 L | +51.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 285 | 54.4%155 W · 130 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 78c | 42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 648 | 50.6%328 W · 320 L | -13.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 79c | 20.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 340 | 35%119 W · 221 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf664…c89bbacked No | 76c | 17.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?this page
- Will Paraguay be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?No won
- Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?No won
- Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?No won
- Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?No won
- Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.