Fifa International · resolved market
Will Paraguay be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01572e5341d540bda0fc66a08ed6cb6a6143da6d37129ca0797cc386ff6fc929
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,573
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,482
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,573 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 17c | 1,624$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.34 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab2d…b1aabacked Yes | 13c | 1,491$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.24 | 165 | 40.6%67 W · 98 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb7e…28ddbacked Yes | 44c | 789.38$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.15 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 35c | 500$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 341 | 51%174 W · 167 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No | 60c | 440$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 476 | 48.5%231 W · 245 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed Yes | 36c | 413.32$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.05 | 256 | 38.7%99 W · 157 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked No | 48c | 373.95$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.15 | 206 | 52.9%109 W · 97 L | +14.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed No | 71c | 334.71$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.51 | 350 | 33.7%118 W · 232 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…9f20backed Yes | 17c | 301.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked No | 77c | 300$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 171 | 38%65 W · 106 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa160…f853backed No | 52c | 244$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cc…015bbacked Yes | 62c | 239.9$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.74 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7806…b302backed No | 37c | 218.38$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.38 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed No | 40c | 154.59$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.21 | 673 | 54.7%368 W · 305 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6406…bc04backed Yes | 63c | 140$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.8 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 12c | 115$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 172 | 17.4%30 W · 142 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 23c | 111.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 212 | 39.6%84 W · 128 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 19c | 101.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 802 | 25.7%206 W · 596 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Yes | 33c | 100.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 345 | 54.2%187 W · 158 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69e6…c894backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked No | 34c | 98.35$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.91 | 1,306 | 44.7%584 W · 722 L | -9.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e1…bb47backed Yes | 63c | 87.3$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 76c | 85.45$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 427 | 37.2%159 W · 268 L | -15.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61ca…a1b4backed Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes | 16c | 78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 116 | 11.2%13 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb842…330ebacked Yes | 24c | 72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 52c | 67.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.61 | 166 | 46.4%77 W · 89 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked No | 33c | 64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.88 | 199 | 29.1%58 W · 141 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed No | 74c | 61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 181 | 39.8%72 W · 109 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf722…4e1ebacked Yes | 64c | 55.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cea…ffd2backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -8.8wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x69db…362cbacked No | 45c | 49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -28%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 40c | 48.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 77c | 45.21$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 457 | 36.3%166 W · 291 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe702…b6c1backed No | 43c | 45.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked No | 63c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…6b2bbacked No | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed No | 39c | 43.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 144 | 36.1%52 W · 92 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7d…cb08backed Yes | 65c | 42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 168 | 47%79 W · 89 L | -11.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes | 38c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 175 | 58.9%103 W · 72 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 35c | 29.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 147 | 39.5%58 W · 89 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…8227backed No | 41c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…4e3bbacked No | 62c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 66c | 28.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 792 | 31.1%246 W · 546 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1a…c7b1backed No | 41c | 27.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb090…7085backed No | 58c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 63c | 24.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb85d…2315backed No | 61c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3d…b7f1backed No | 60c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…4206backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…e8f7backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Paraguay be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?this page
- Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?No won
- Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?No won
- Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?Yes won
- Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?No won
- Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.