Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19fa243753048bcabc176859292d0f63aac3bc9538207cce327741d4c0e9a856
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bayer 04 Leverkusenof FC Bayern München, Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,759
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,553
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,759 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 77c | 3,873$2,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$877.86 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed FC Bayern München | 24c | 1,218$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.21 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed FC Bayern München | 25c | 999.98$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed FC Bayern München | 25c | 600$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked FC Bayern München | 7c | 357.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed FC Bayern München | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5c…1768backed FC Bayern München | 23c | 299.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -7.2wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -47%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9403…7361backed FC Bayern München | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked FC Bayern München | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked FC Bayern München | 26c | 206$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.56 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9759…cb52backed FC Bayern München | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed FC Bayern München | 23c | 149.39$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed FC Bayern München | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…a919backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 78c | 103.84$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aab…773bbacked FC Bayern München | 23c | 91.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 80c | 78.25$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…3db9backed FC Bayern München | 24c | 62.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4c…dc70backed FC Bayern München | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd9…3dadbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 78c | 50.27$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed FC Bayern München | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed FC Bayern München | 24c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 76c | 35.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 73c | 28.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…988dbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 79c | 20.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 77c | 12.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.93 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)this page
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5Over won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5Under won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5Under won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5)FC Bayern München won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-2.5)FC Bayern München won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)Bayer 04 Leverkusen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.