TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$121,227

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $121,227 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 172 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under44c20,790$9,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,742.473,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under47c10,071$4,685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,385.922,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44c5…8d45backed Over46c7,777$3,577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,577.416045%72 W · 88 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7197…14c8backed Over65c5,000$3,241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,240.993246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2fb…b9f0backed Over66c4,523$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0001163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a6f…6b82backed Over74c3,877$2,869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8691675%12 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+12.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d73…044bbacked Under43c3,695$1,589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,106.151275%9 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+32.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Under26c3,429$891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,537.293429.4%10 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+19.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Over34c3,195$1,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,095.0149143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under56c3,054$1,719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,334.641,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cf9…b4cabacked Over35c2,835$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$989.8530%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf515…0805backed Over75c2,665$1,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,998.981973.7%14 W · 5 L+3.0wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+31.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3ecf…c870backed Under34c2,555$860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,695.47366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+45.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2412…b5a1backed Over75c2,200$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6506768.7%46 W · 21 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd90d…cf07backed Over48c2,060$981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980.8837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick25cpaid+326.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under25c1,972$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,480.811,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Over51c1,876$956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$955.6516060.6%97 W · 63 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under46c1,474$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$800.321,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fef…5946backed Over62c1,453$906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905.931471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+47.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over73c1,303$957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$957.1534144.6%152 W · 189 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3486…49eebacked Over77c1,299$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00019943.2%86 W · 113 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d91…df18backed Over47c1,265$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6006550.8%33 W · 32 L+6.1wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+22.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under46c1,256$573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$683.181,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ae5…4f22backed Over60c1,099$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657.152479.2%19 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick67cpaid+12.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbe56…593abacked Under11c1,061$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$940.512626.9%7 W · 19 L+3.7wins+0.14per pick13cpaid+128%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x38f1…9ff1backed Over75c1,000$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7504965.3%32 W · 17 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d91…c495backed Over45c999$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.55333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over46c863.7$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40026433.3%88 W · 176 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4676…1639backed Over74c861.24$637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.324134.1%14 W · 27 L-4.1wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-24.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0d10…b81dbacked Over64c837.3$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5403066.7%20 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+19.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x635f…6be6backed Over65c802.63$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-52.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaab8…a331backed Over65c769.23$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003360.6%20 W · 13 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1fcd…445ebacked Under12c750$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.52429.2%7 W · 17 L+3.6wins+0.15per pick14cpaid+140.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8d3d…5f66backed Under15c700$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5961241.7%5 W · 7 L+3.0wins+0.25per pick17cpaid+155.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe91c…5331backed Over64c699.36$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4501758.8%10 W · 7 L-0.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41a3…017dbacked Under61c654.43$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.431844.4%8 W · 10 L-3.0wins-0.17per pick61cpaid-24.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Under25c624.99$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.7422047.3%104 W · 116 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec59…bb35backed Over34c599.97$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.996762.7%42 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe3c…a835backed Over60c500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30012952.7%68 W · 61 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf277…9a5fbacked Over62c483.87$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001643.8%7 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.16per pick60cpaid-33.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1677…1126backed Under25c480$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36014254.2%77 W · 65 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Under25c460.34$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.0617247.1%81 W · 91 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x950a…71e4backed Over34c441.18$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0979…fc8abacked Under12c435$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.12429.2%7 W · 17 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick15cpaid+99%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over74c403$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.147345.2%33 W · 40 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+1.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c30…0ac6backed Over69c400$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2741154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x750b…609fbacked Under9c400$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6dc…a4a1backed Under9c400$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3643100%3 W · 0 L+2.7wins+0.91per pick9cpaid+1,020.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x417e…85e4backed Under9c400$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick5cpaid+85.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6619…703ebacked Over76c394.74$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30018958.2%110 W · 79 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Over50c383$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.513142%55 W · 76 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under27c370.07$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.7863645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa99a…388ebacked Over78c336.8$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.181580%12 W · 3 L+3.5wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+64.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xafc4…daa1backed Under15c334.99$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.093627.8%10 W · 26 L+5.0wins+0.14per pick14cpaid+88.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb80a…1a43backed Over51c326.56$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.0650%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5905…a34cbacked Over58c323.43$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.592365.2%15 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0666…d31abacked Over65c307.69$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003240.6%13 W · 19 L-4.2wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-26.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under26c300$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22235856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5be9…8e34backed Under17c300$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2491040%4 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.23per pick17cpaid+122.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under30c300$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21033340.8%136 W · 197 L-14.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over66c298.74$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.5633938.1%129 W · 210 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Under47c296.44$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.112142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Under28c286.41$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.6312064.2%77 W · 43 L+10.5wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+17.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf343…fba6backed Over66c285.38$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.351241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick55cpaid-20.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Under34c270.31$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.4114734.7%51 W · 96 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4c9…9ee4backed Over56c267.86$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under28c264.13$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.6548146.4%223 W · 258 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf0e…3197backed Over77c260$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.23174.2%23 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.11per pick63cpaid+25.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd871…6bbabacked Over49c259.96$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.681553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+55.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5142…ee20backed Over35c256.14$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.651450%7 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c56…0615backed Under43c232.56$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.566245.2%28 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Over55c225.04$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.3416046.9%75 W · 85 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x172d…6f3ebacked Over56c220$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.29062.2%56 W · 34 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under27c213.89$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15649647.4%235 W · 261 L+2.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3248…8ba9backed Over47c212.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+26.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3454…333bbacked Over47c212.75$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.993342.4%14 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32f2…7830backed Over60c209.99$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.32272.7%16 W · 6 L+4.0wins+0.18per pick54cpaid+49.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3696…69cebacked Over76c200$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1525771.9%41 W · 16 L+7.7wins+0.14per pick58cpaid+25.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Over76c200$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15217055.3%94 W · 76 L-0.8wins0.00per pick56cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3bf…762dbacked Over79c200$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1583773%27 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+6.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x29ed…66f7backed Over50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+42.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff79…a52abacked Over56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11210552.4%55 W · 50 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1edf…2392backed Over39c189.2$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.053240.6%13 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe84a…5baabacked Over54c186.65$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.79450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-1.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1f6d…3070backed Over20c184.43$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.432347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+64.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc253…5800backed Over72c182.85$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.654269%29 W · 13 L+5.2wins+0.12per pick57cpaid+25%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8090…42c1backed Over73c171.23$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1253351.5%17 W · 16 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-11.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0fa3…f5c0backed Over35c162.51$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd60c…2b06backed Over59c152.01$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.3516056.9%91 W · 69 L+13.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+22.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa6c2…ba6ebacked Over67c150$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.55354.7%29 W · 24 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5976…7f3fbacked Over62c145.26$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x82e7…c61cbacked Over77c142.63$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1102263.6%14 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb17e…22bebacked Under70c141.3$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.741952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Over56c139.7$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.6939558.7%232 W · 163 L+27.4wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf3f2…fe1bbacked Over72c139.65$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.44per pick69cpaid-67.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3766…e05abacked Over36c138.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf03…a2a4backed Over65c137.25$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.21366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-9.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x02b6…8f5fbacked Over74c135.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001580%12 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick67cpaid+41.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Under24c134.2$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.56035%21 W · 39 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+18.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e69…7a30backed Over76c131.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick77cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.