Bundesliga · resolved market
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82f2fcdd04b95f324c74e928604242b18f355788068069f7c49d52d090993932
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $160,977
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $160,977 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 9c | 11,210$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$974.76 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe1…622cbacked Under | 12c | 10,165$1,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,219.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 9c | 8,993$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776.19 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Under | 10c | 5,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 14c | 2,554$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.61 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 11c | 1,975$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.51 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 15c | 1,806$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.13 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc4…99adbacked Under | 12c | 1,610$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…92ddbacked Under | 2c | 1,141$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.23per pick | 4cpaid | +842.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce0…6599backed Under | 3c | 1,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 73c | 1,000$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecf…c870backed Under | 30c | 854.82$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 20c | 644.01$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.67 | 147 | 34.7%51 W · 96 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53eb…90ebbacked Under | 11c | 606.36$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.7 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 10c | 555$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf6…cf2abacked Under | 2c | 526.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd00e…fb86backed Under | 14c | 500$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.48 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 45cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 8c | 471.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Under | 9c | 440.67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.33 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 23c | 349.9$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.18 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Under | 9c | 329.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…ddaabacked Over | 74c | 270.65$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3248…8ba9backed Over | 77c | 206.25$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.48 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 9c | 193.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 13c | 151.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 79c | 150$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.65 | 61 | 82%50 W · 11 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe3…949cbacked Under | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 23c | 127.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1edf…2392backed Under | 20c | 126$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x639f…6b8dbacked Under | 15c | 123.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2e…3fb7backed Under | 15c | 101.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Under | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3160…e846backed Under | 22c | 89.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf03…a2a4backed Over | 74c | 89.31$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf594…bfc1backed Under | 30c | 72.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9784…e452backed Over | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd69e…3393backed Over | 73c | 28.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0235…472ebacked Over | 75c | 26.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 35 | 82.9%29 W · 6 L | +8.1wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5this page
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5Under won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5Under won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5)FC Bayern München won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-2.5)FC Bayern München won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)Bayer 04 Leverkusen won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)Bayer 04 Leverkusen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.