TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$91,341

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,341 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x933f…1540backed Under67c14,500$9,692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,808.12333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-50.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over31c7,756$2,417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,417.362,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38b0…060cbacked Over33c5,555$1,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,833.151650%8 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over33c4,700$1,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,561.534144.6%152 W · 189 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under67c2,823$1,901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$922.323,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cbb…c561backed Over36c1,390$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over6c1,256$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7526433.3%88 W · 176 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fef…5946backed Over36c1,013$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3601471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+47.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Over28c905.18$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.516035%21 W · 39 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+18.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1263…fddcbacked Over31c799.98$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.991145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over33c603.72$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.1935856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Over34c592.98$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.331,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x478a…2deabacked Under66c532.52$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.212142.9%9 W · 12 L-3.3wins-0.16per pick59cpaid-31.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over32c503.26$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.9748146.4%223 W · 258 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5773…ac11backed Under64c404.42$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.3731145%140 W · 171 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over33c296.21$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.691,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0050…336cbacked Under68c293.29$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.183100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Over33c285.62$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.3563645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf60…79c5backed Under70c269.27$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.781428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6619…703ebacked Under67c253.73$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.7318958.2%110 W · 79 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over34c249.99$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8549647.4%235 W · 261 L+2.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf715…bbf0backed Over32c229$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.284015%6 W · 34 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-43.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x289c…79bcbacked Over36c224.55$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.491172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick51cpaid+51.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1813…4dfebacked Over16c208.25$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2418353%97 W · 86 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Under66c206$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.117055.3%94 W · 76 L-0.8wins0.00per pick56cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8bd…ec2dbacked Under69c202.9$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.92100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf009…19e9backed Over32c197.69$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.2612538.4%48 W · 77 L-0.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1677…1126backed Under65c185$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.7514254.2%77 W · 65 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over32c176$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.327345.2%33 W · 40 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+1.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2728…4f96backed Over32c155.06$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.62933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under69c149.71$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.4156547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Over34c147.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5037344.5%166 W · 207 L-15.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc8a…1fb3backed Over51c143.14$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$738056.3%45 W · 35 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Over11c111$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2149143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe43a…3de9backed Under66c109.85$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.443100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+116.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8c7…3726backed Under52c103.85$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.854535.6%16 W · 29 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b32…8052backed Under52c101.4$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.671136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-27.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0866…a1d5backed Under54c100.09$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.093441.2%14 W · 20 L-4.7wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-31.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc0fb…ec4fbacked Over33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334639.1%18 W · 28 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+19.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x095e…abc5backed Over35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9073…13b3backed Under69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311533.3%5 W · 10 L-3.5wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-39.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa62c…a3c1backed Over34c98.41$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4630%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x49ca…5944backed Under52c95.81$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.819067.8%61 W · 29 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x798e…4df3backed Over37c91.03$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.521936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-28.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Over42c83.2$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.214734.7%51 W · 96 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Under68c75.29$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.0330647.1%144 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-11.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9f6f…2715backed Under71c75$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.75250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57dc…01ffbacked Under67c74.63$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.63475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde66…be48backed Over36c74.11$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.682673.1%19 W · 7 L+3.9wins+0.15per pick58cpaid+27.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x011c…f943backed Over36c74$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.64944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe824…65b4backed Over35c73.8$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.837766.2%51 W · 26 L+8.2wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+36.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb226…4469backed Over36c71.43$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.712839.3%11 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f03…dc32backed Over31c70.19$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.76119.1%1 W · 10 L-3.5wins-0.32per pick41cpaid-85.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8fe3…949cbacked Over33c66.67$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222025%5 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd60c…2b06backed Over38c66.31$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.216056.9%91 W · 69 L+13.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+22.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6404…2a20backed Over31c55.03$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171414.3%2 W · 12 L-3.5wins-0.25per pick39cpaid-72.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1402…4853backed Under58c51.9$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.9366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+23%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x261c…d49dbacked Under69c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.51361.5%8 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick73cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf07…4a12backed Over35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.54841.7%20 W · 28 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7718…4c1bbacked Over29c49.98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.51233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+32.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Over35c47.73$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.591,08350.8%550 W · 533 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Over22c46.54$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.44333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa639…f5e8backed Over44c45.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2014758.5%86 W · 61 L+15.9wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+30.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe164…acfebacked Over33c45.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.961338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-26.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x69ee…6e35backed Under67c40.54$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5521051.4%108 W · 102 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bbf…f4e6backed Under67c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.23565.7%23 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc38d…48e3backed Under61c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.81090%9 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick69cpaid+27.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbcd1…5d5fbacked Under69c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.48100%8 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x54d5…77d4backed Under52c38.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.462254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under65c36.49$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.833938.1%129 W · 210 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x631c…7bfebacked Under64c34.74$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.353420.6%7 W · 27 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-23.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c77…bde7backed Under66c34.68$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Under67c33.86$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.0117247.1%81 W · 91 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d6e…42d4backed Under61c32.95$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.95683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick65cpaid+44.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Under68c30.18$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6412064.2%77 W · 43 L+10.5wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+17.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x88b5…7b0bbacked Under58c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x252f…4f62backed Under67c29.85$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.854630.4%14 W · 32 L-5.5wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-22.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Under67c29.28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6612157.9%70 W · 51 L+8.9wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+17.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Under71c29$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.417948.1%38 W · 41 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-16.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0b0f…50bebacked Under66c22.73$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.73771.4%5 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick71cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a3c…84c5backed Under69c22.03$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.831963.2%12 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedf7…5ac3backed Under74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.21747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+24%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9478…d6d5backed Under65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Under64c15.99$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.72837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-37.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.