Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a20b68c18d4fa87ade4c0550f221b85d91ced8a2533cb7bcc55e7d41c1ff98c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,661
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,514
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,661 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 279.12$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.77 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 245.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.41 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 208.9$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.19 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 64c | 139.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.39 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed Yes | 10c | 128.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 22c | 120.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7313…49d2backed Yes | 18c | 114.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4e…9321backed Yes | 31c | 112.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 23c | 112$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19fc…1d7dbacked No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 99.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 29c | 88.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 27c | 87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 80c | 85.69$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 26c | 76.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 24c | 70.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 37c | 64.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 55.75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf07f…8a62backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 23c | 47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 28c | 46.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 35c | 44.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 66c | 43.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 37c | 41.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff89…dbffbacked Yes | 36c | 41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 35c | 40.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed Yes | 29c | 39.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed Yes | 34c | 37.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0f…c1e6backed No | 78c | 33.69$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 65c | 31.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 73c | 28.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed No | 67c | 28.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 67c | 27.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…6b2bbacked No | 74c | 26.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf4…191bbacked No | 78c | 25.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 24.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 77c | 24.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 64c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…9065backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 44 | 77.3%34 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +22%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 73c | 17.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C or higher on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.