Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a3ed36549dba6aff7f507ae4c77bfb2e738f24e8f5d2bb35ae2cb1909f8d8c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,715
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,591
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,715 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf93…5d2abacked Yes | 2c | 3,086$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.55 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 38c | 646.26$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.44 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 21c | 550.63$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.3 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 480$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.29 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 16c | 467.45$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.15 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2188…7a8dbacked Yes | 14c | 424.68$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 37c | 312.06$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.47 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked Yes | 18c | 304.93$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.06 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c96…42efbacked No | 78c | 271.41$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.14 | 31 | 83.9%26 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 70cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 19c | 249.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 245.2$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.23 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 23c | 245.07$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.98 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 59c | 207.98$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.09 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 52c | 180.9$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.63 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf2…ca49backed Yes | 18c | 173.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 18c | 158.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad1b…ba8bbacked Yes | 14c | 144.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 25c | 140.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 138.67$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 36c | 133.81$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.61 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 121$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 19c | 117.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 26c | 116.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a4a4backed Yes | 20c | 111.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 192 | 17.2%33 W · 159 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 20c | 111.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 80c | 111.2$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 13c | 107.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 33c | 105$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 59c | 102.58$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0927…6486backed Yes | 24c | 102.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 24c | 100.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc47e…0fc4backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a27…51ffbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 47c | 94.84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…3a35backed No | 78c | 89.28$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cf…66c3backed Yes | 29c | 81.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c3…78f8backed Yes | 18c | 79.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 76c | 77$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 20c | 75.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 75c | 75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4875…149bbacked No | 76c | 72.34$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked No | 73c | 67.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…bee4backed Yes | 38c | 64.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 62.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6f26…93bcbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ec…7631backed Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7164…24fabacked No | 63c | 59.97$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 22c | 58.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 25c | 57.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94c0…a805backed No | 74c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b3…8334backed Yes | 19c | 54.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca4…abb1backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df2…c6f5backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 25c | 48.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 47c | 44.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 28c | 43.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…cc7dbacked No | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7782…f35fbacked No | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb385…3824backed Yes | 38c | 39.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 59c | 37.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 42c | 33.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 74c | 32.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 32.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 73c | 30.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 73c | 22.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66d3…7badbacked No | 80c | 21.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x599f…3317backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 125 | 78.4%98 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed No | 78c | 19.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b76…8fdabacked No | 76c | 18.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 15.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8786…6884backed No | 79c | 14.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.14 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10a1…7a23backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 33 | 84.8%28 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 79cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on June 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.