Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6dade1f91cb3dc4649a3c32d566188fcdf4fef81a20fc057ddc7dcdf3b52ba41
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,588
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,967
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,588 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 4,750$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 18c | 1,413$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.65 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 17c | 720.44$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.44 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 13c | 562.5$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.88 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64f8…eec6backed No | 79c | 500$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 21c | 375.16$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.59 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…b97abacked Yes | 19c | 344.33$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.28 | 175 | 36.6%64 W · 111 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 14c | 326.61$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.45 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 19c | 307.82$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 22c | 304.9$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.53 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 27c | 304.49$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.64 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 17c | 266.49$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9c96…42efbacked No | 78c | 245.49$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.1 | 31 | 83.9%26 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 70cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 14c | 207.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 206.79$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.52 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 20c | 206.11$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5398…ceb0backed Yes | 11c | 202.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +10.6wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 17c | 199.78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 197.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 16c | 191.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 186.2$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.25 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 10c | 180$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 28c | 179.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b70…12b4backed Yes | 12c | 166.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +10.1wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 76c | 160$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8699…f6bebacked Yes | 13c | 160$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | +12.4wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…882ebacked No | 68c | 156.09$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.95 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 9c | 149.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 30c | 139.11$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.07 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 15c | 134.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…bee4backed Yes | 24c | 129.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 19c | 124.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 17c | 108.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5154…aa32backed Yes | 20c | 94.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 36cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 78c | 93.94$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 89.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4875…149bbacked No | 78c | 86.28$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 20c | 84.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 83.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 81$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cf…66c3backed Yes | 15c | 80.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c3…78f8backed Yes | 35c | 76.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x743e…f405backed No | 70c | 71.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 32c | 70.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2720…2920backed No | 73c | 68.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 69c | 66.06$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…b7d3backed No | 78c | 65.72$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24b5…d8dbbacked Yes | 19c | 63.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1535…d77bbacked Yes | 29c | 59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe03c…c61bbacked No | 68c | 58.31$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 30c | 57.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 18c | 57.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad1b…ba8bbacked Yes | 35c | 56.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 72c | 54.53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcca4…abb1backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9269…5731backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d62…680bbacked No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 29c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 49.93$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 71c | 47.55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 72c | 47.33$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 66c | 46.81$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38aa…53a6backed Yes | 24c | 41.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 31c | 36.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 71c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed No | 66c | 32.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9575backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 70c | 28.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked No | 70c | 28.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed No | 80c | 26.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 80c | 26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4030…bc87backed No | 65c | 23.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 70c | 21.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 72c | 20.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x746d…2db5backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 74 | 67.6%50 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 71c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 71c | 16.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8dc…2222backed No | 69c | 16.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on June 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.