TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$32,588
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$31,967

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,588 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe907…cff6backed Yes1c4,750$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.243,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed Yes18c1,413$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.6588028.9%254 W · 626 L-2.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x438a…61c4backed Yes17c720.44$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.4423143.3%100 W · 131 L+19.0wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+36.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes13c562.5$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.6512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4de1…18a2backed Yes19c500$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.8843515.2%66 W · 369 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64f8…eec6backed No79c500$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1042373.9%17 W · 6 L+3.0wins+0.13per pick61cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes21c375.16$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.5945540%182 W · 273 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xecc6…b97abacked Yes19c344.33$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.2817536.6%64 W · 111 L+11.9wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+31.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed Yes14c326.61$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4548919.2%94 W · 395 L-38.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x9196…d934backed Yes19c307.82$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5764460.6%390 W · 254 L+92.2wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+36.4%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes22c304.9$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.5332440.1%130 W · 194 L+12.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1941…deeabacked Yes27c304.49$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.641,07236.6%392 W · 680 L+25.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf56c…ad84backed Yes4c300$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125073.4%17 W · 490 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4818…e5debacked Yes17c266.49$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.9931219.9%62 W · 250 L-40.4wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-59.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x9c96…42efbacked No78c245.49$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.13183.9%26 W · 5 L+4.3wins+0.14per pick70cpaid+18.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xebf0…2330backed Yes14c207.43$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2841051.7%212 W · 198 L+24.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes30c206.79$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.5217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xed29…3024backed Yes20c206.11$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6224139.8%96 W · 145 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5398…ceb0backed Yes11c202.56$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.734959.2%29 W · 20 L+10.6wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+63.5%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x3910…ba74backed Yes17c199.78$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0917231.4%54 W · 118 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes13c197.3$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes16c191.41$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.432,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No69c186.2$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.255,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes10c180$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2599949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes28c179.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.43,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b70…12b4backed Yes12c166.9$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.685757.9%33 W · 24 L+10.1wins+0.18per pick40cpaid+77.2%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No76c160$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8699…f6bebacked Yes13c160$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.39440.4%38 W · 56 L+12.4wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+51.4%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xfe49…882ebacked No68c156.09$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.95475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick73cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33e8…dc93backed Yes9c149.15$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7823941.4%99 W · 140 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes30c139.11$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.071,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f19…e819backed Yes15c134.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2052935.7%189 W · 340 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f25…bee4backed Yes24c129.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.579341.9%39 W · 54 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa895…faacbacked Yes19c124.12$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5820338.4%78 W · 125 L+30.4wins+0.15per pick23cpaid+177%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes17c108.48$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.71,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2111627.6%32 W · 84 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-0.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5154…aa32backed Yes20c94.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.421952.6%10 W · 9 L+3.2wins+0.17per pick36cpaid+21.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked No78c93.94$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.9463323.9%151 W · 482 L-20.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes21c89.5$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.769,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4875…149bbacked No78c86.28$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.764955.1%27 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes20c84.63$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.681,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes29c83.75$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5710,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No74c81$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.073,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6cf…66c3backed Yes15c80.03$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.89341.9%39 W · 54 L-0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes30c80$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1c3…78f8backed Yes35c76.44$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-31.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x743e…f405backed No70c71.64$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.641361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick58cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes32c70.17$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.31,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2720…2920backed No73c68.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.491566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8839…ddb5backed No69c66.06$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.3221865.6%143 W · 75 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e4f…b7d3backed No78c65.72$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.743141.9%13 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24b5…d8dbbacked Yes19c63.27$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-32.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22a4…13e5backed Yes33c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.88543.5%37 W · 48 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1535…d77bbacked Yes29c59$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.117143.7%31 W · 40 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe03c…c61bbacked No68c58.31$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.743647.2%17 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes30c57.67$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.042,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3eb…b529backed Yes18c57.46$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6261629.4%181 W · 435 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad1b…ba8bbacked Yes35c56.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-49.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No72c54.53$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.272,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8547…39abbacked Yes21c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.514833.1%49 W · 99 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcca4…abb1backed Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9269…5731backed Yes21c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.54632.6%15 W · 31 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-27.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d62…680bbacked No71c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes29c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.371031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad58…7624backed Yes24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1254232.3%175 W · 367 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked No78c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.951,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1518814.4%27 W · 161 L-14.7wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-14.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No75c49.93$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.636,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No71c47.55$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.942,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b72…a958backed No72c47.33$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2568645.8%314 W · 372 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No66c46.81$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.887,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No72c42$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.855,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38aa…53a6backed Yes24c41.68$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.074126.8%11 W · 30 L-3.9wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-42.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes31c36.37$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2652828%148 W · 380 L-57.1wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No71c34$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8663757.6%367 W · 270 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff06…c7d5backed No66c32.29$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.9811258.9%66 W · 46 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb36…9575backed Yes32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104632.6%15 W · 31 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No66c30.3$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.32,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No64c29.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.88,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No68c29$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.284,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2ed…9d98backed No70c28.37$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.3782268.7%565 W · 257 L+72.3wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x2cff…468bbacked No70c28.34$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.3616263%102 W · 60 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x437f…5b95backed No80c26.48$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.3712536.8%46 W · 79 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No80c26$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.23,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4030…bc87backed No65c23.07$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.073265.6%21 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No70c21.83$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.552,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No72c20.9$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.8557264.5%369 W · 203 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4701…ca83backed No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$716456.7%93 W · 71 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-9.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4167…f99abacked No73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.41,03668.6%711 W · 325 L-33.9wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x746d…2db5backed No72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.67467.6%50 W · 24 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick73cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No63c18$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.661,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x932b…a773backed No71c17.14$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.9722853.1%121 W · 107 L-0.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No71c16.77$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.862,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8dc…2222backed No69c16.07$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.985966.1%39 W · 20 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+21.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d60…6df2backed No72c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.225766.1%170 W · 87 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.