Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7abb19e473e1c2effcc226b4b1805c3b3499a10f74e78c06c80df4c73ffe0801
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,088
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,615
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,088 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 11c | 627.77$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.43 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 3c | 550.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9210…5430backed No | 6c | 492$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 28c | 428.86$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.62 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 56c | 413.31$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.45 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 27c | 367.73$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.88 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 318.74$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.6 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 57c | 293.94$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.17 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 52c | 289.88$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed No | 60c | 248.23$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 7c | 247.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 245.2$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.06 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 12c | 243$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed No | 61c | 218.12$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.96 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 34c | 200.01$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.86 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 68c | 199.99$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.59 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 14c | 195$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…bee4backed Yes | 64c | 157.38$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.47 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e59…ff78backed No | 61c | 150$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…62d5backed No | 55c | 150$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7d…7a79backed Yes | 41c | 149.97$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…b143backed Yes | 75c | 143.72$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 64c | 141.2$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.47 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 69c | 140.09$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.57 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9aa…11f7backed No | 50c | 119.56$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 13c | 117.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 116$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.84 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 52c | 113.74$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.08 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 56c | 109.13$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.09 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 39c | 106.08$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 100.94$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc47e…0fc4backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec9b…acdfbacked No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f5…923abacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a27…51ffbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…5a54backed No | 58c | 99.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.99 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 56cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 93.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.26 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 64c | 93$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.65 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 35c | 85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 37c | 85$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.55 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59b0…56e8backed Yes | 36c | 84.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.42 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 83.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.98 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 42c | 81.31$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.09 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cf…66c3backed Yes | 41c | 80$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 80$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 54c | 80$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.14 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 45c | 78.49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…b97abacked Yes | 42c | 78.18$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.98 | 175 | 36.6%64 W · 111 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc987…123abacked No | 75c | 75.14$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 61c | 75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.38 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 38c | 74.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.18 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 69c | 72.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 36c | 71.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c3…78f8backed Yes | 31c | 70.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.42 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 71c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 73c | 68.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 57c | 68$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked No | 60c | 67.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad1b…ba8bbacked Yes | 30c | 66.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 39c | 66.74$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 65c | 64.38$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.17 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 60.82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.47 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f26…93bcbacked Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ec…7631backed Yes | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c29…f3bbbacked No | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed Yes | 35c | 59.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 44c | 57.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.19 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 51.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.83 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…b7d3backed No | 57c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf340…d71abacked No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca4…abb1backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.26 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.62 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8daf…ef60backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x266b…afaabacked No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24b5…d8dbbacked Yes | 39c | 49.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb1…6be9backed No | 61c | 48.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -4.9wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 58c | 48.23$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 37c | 48.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 42c | 48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 30c | 47.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.67 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 68c | 46.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd87d…e519backed Yes | 35c | 45.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed No | 71c | 44.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 69c | 43.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 58c | 42.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 57c | 42.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked No | 70c | 42.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x475b…caf2backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…6dabbacked No | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf279…202cbacked No | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a0…b7a2backed No | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…ba19backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd28…d325backed No | 68c | 38.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 31c | 38.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on June 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.