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Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 22 to August 24, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$138,859
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$101,784

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $138,859 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes2c9,945$237 inLost-$236.651,06110.7%113 W · 948 L-34.2wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-59%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes2c8,752$171 inLost-$171.3122715%34 W · 193 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-56.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe089…ad3abacked Yes1c6,797$100 inLost-$99.671974.1%8 W · 189 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+211.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes2c5,400$117 inLost-$117.3853410.5%56 W · 478 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes1c5,246$32 inLost-$32.1881311.1%90 W · 723 L+29.7wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+30.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc5e8…8354backed Yes2c5,000$110 inLost-$1104511.1%5 W · 40 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+52%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes16c4,581$720 inLost-$720.355622.5%125 W · 431 L-19.8wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-37.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes2c4,170$71 inLost-$713974.5%18 W · 379 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes1c4,013$59 inLost-$58.5337110.8%40 W · 331 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x524d…4495backed Yes1c3,623$49 inLost-$49.2718120.4%37 W · 144 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-4.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes2c2,800$52 inLost-$51.985775.5%32 W · 545 L+15.8wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+37.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22af…399abacked Yes9c2,773$241 inLost-$241.237420.3%15 W · 59 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+191.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes1c2,760$27 inLost-$26.554638.2%38 W · 425 L+1.3wins0.00per pick8cpaid-22.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Yes2c2,182$36 inLost-$35.6112837.5%48 W · 80 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-26.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes3c2,042$55 inLost-$54.8325424.4%62 W · 192 L-13.8wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-46.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes2c2,017$41 inLost-$411,0968.2%90 W · 1,006 L+28.7wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-30.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x828e…c21bbacked Yes1c1,796$22 inLost-$21.6228417.3%49 W · 235 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-12.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes5c1,647$84 inLost-$83.971,8097.4%133 W · 1,676 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes3c1,585$49 inLost-$48.882,58913.1%340 W · 2,249 L+4.5wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes2c1,457$25 inLost-$25.115337.3%57 W · 96 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-20.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f69…cf59backed Yes2c1,450$26 inLost-$26.412310.6%13 W · 110 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+68.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde0f…57c1backed Yes2c1,018$24 inLost-$23.722225.9%13 W · 209 L-0.2wins0.00per pick6cpaid-41.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes1c1,000$14 inLost-$14.4430427%82 W · 222 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes2c744$15 inLost-$14.8864239.1%251 W · 391 L+48.8wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+17.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5393…966abacked Yes3c686.85$20 inLost-$204524.4%11 W · 34 L-0.2wins0.00per pick25cpaid+102.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc959…c37fbacked Yes12c640.01$80 inLost-$805024%12 W · 38 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-41.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes9c572.7$51 inLost-$50.790317.1%154 W · 749 L+0.7wins0.00per pick17cpaid-33.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes3c564.49$20 inLost-$19.5359320.9%124 W · 469 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-26.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes3c560$19 inLost-$18.889818.8%169 W · 729 L+11.4wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-24.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83a3…c878backed Yes2c544.4$13 inLost-$13.016918.8%13 W · 56 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-31.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes7c489.99$32 inLost-$31.881,07213.6%146 W · 926 L+38.7wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes11c433.25$49 inLost-$49.1634021.5%73 W · 267 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-35.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Yes10c367.88$38 inLost-$38.0447023.4%110 W · 360 L-20.4wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-29.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ca9…a2e6backed Yes6c233.07$13 inLost-$132725.9%7 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97cd…227dbacked Yes9c222.22$20 inLost-$201942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+197.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ac5…6c75backed Yes14c142.86$20 inLost-$201612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick17cpaid+363.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes12c138.42$17 inLost-$17.1843019.3%83 W · 347 L-19.5wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-53.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe807…8d4dbacked Yes12c134.17$16 inLost-$16.12623.1%6 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes14c100$14 inLost-$1421633.3%72 W · 144 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36cb…63d0backed Yes10c100$10 inLost-$1028511.2%32 W · 253 L+0.1wins0.00per pick11cpaid-22.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.