Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 22 to August 24, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3c634bd79a1edcecf49596f45cd8921e2b7ac8f54292d39a7f8f1213f713d5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $190,279
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $169,217
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $190,279 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 171 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x22af…399abacked Yes | 0c | 22,346$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 74 | 20.3%15 W · 59 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +191.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 19c | 14,361$2,662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,662.49 | 227 | 15%34 W · 193 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 1c | 5,742$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.66 | 286 | 23.4%67 W · 219 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8d3fbacked Yes | 21c | 4,812$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.87 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 25c | 4,772$1,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,197.65 | 549 | 23%126 W · 423 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x913f…c676backed Yes | 10c | 4,221$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.42 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4355…c5d4backed Yes | 8c | 3,160$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.97 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…40edbacked Yes | 23c | 3,001$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.62 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 12c | 2,999$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.97 | 233 | 18.9%44 W · 189 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 14c | 2,907$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.9 | 142 | 31.7%45 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2127…37f2backed No | 79c | 2,370$1,869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.39 | 110 | 67.3%74 W · 36 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes | 25c | 2,156$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.23 | 153 | 27.5%42 W · 111 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd68…0261backed Yes | 17c | 2,065$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.79 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb19…e061backed Yes | 13c | 2,035$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.06 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ab…2bcfbacked Yes | 26c | 1,673$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.01 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 73c | 1,614$1,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.12 | 232 | 60.3%140 W · 92 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 20c | 1,551$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.82 | 659 | 21.5%142 W · 517 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…0528backed Yes | 13c | 1,550$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 534 | 10.5%56 W · 478 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 1,535$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.2 | 2,589 | 13.1%340 W · 2,249 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 72c | 1,319$953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.66 | 128 | 10.9%14 W · 114 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf77…1488backed Yes | 17c | 1,317$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.09 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -48%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e88…b898backed Yes | 18c | 1,220$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x028d…feccbacked Yes | 9c | 1,121$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed92…5c02backed Yes | 21c | 1,060$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.19 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 1,052$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.17 | 213 | 48.4%103 W · 110 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes | 20c | 1,047$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.26 | 332 | 16.9%56 W · 276 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 28c | 1,005$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286 | 251 | 22.3%56 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 16c | 1,000$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.05 | 574 | 17.2%99 W · 475 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa849…f79fbacked Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 22c | 983.07$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.3 | 304 | 27%82 W · 222 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a35…db99backed Yes | 29c | 981.67$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.51 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 18c | 960.33$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.18 | 471 | 21%99 W · 372 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d3…8c21backed Yes | 5c | 925.65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.56 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…0ef2backed Yes | 22c | 898.11$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.49 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 32c | 884.53$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.17 | 340 | 21.5%73 W · 267 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfffa…b631backed No | 76c | 857.99$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 77c | 846.27$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.8 | 407 | 48.4%197 W · 210 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 7c | 815.87$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.47 | 430 | 19.3%83 W · 347 L | -19.5wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…4967backed Yes | 21c | 794.79$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.51 | 166 | 56%93 W · 73 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…2978backed No | 76c | 716.37$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.79 | 176 | 40.3%71 W · 105 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…80dabacked No | 79c | 696.97$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.92 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb831…892bbacked Yes | 31c | 666.95$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.21 | 191 | 18.3%35 W · 156 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 12c | 652.46$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 1,072 | 13.6%146 W · 926 L | +38.7wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb42b…afe0backed No | 78c | 644.13$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.13 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 13c | 607.28$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.32 | 593 | 20.9%124 W · 469 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f8…97b3backed Yes | 25c | 581.39$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 224 | 42.4%95 W · 129 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…c37fbacked Yes | 34c | 554.63$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 12c | 550.02$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.17 | 1,061 | 10.7%113 W · 948 L | -34.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -59%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…4c88backed Yes | 32c | 534.98$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes | 13c | 518.32$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.88 | 335 | 24.5%82 W · 253 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 78c | 514.49$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 124 | 58.1%72 W · 52 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 857 | 16.5%141 W · 716 L | +25.0wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 13c | 500$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.36 | 60 | 20%12 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb28b…3d9bbacked Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 97 | 25.8%25 W · 72 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1f…cc26backed No | 68c | 492.78$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.53 | 509 | 19.3%98 W · 411 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca9…a2e6backed Yes | 23c | 491.51$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.79 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 15c | 485.3$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.12 | 898 | 18.8%169 W · 729 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 11c | 466$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.07 | 284 | 17.3%49 W · 235 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes | 9c | 461.57$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.13 | 307 | 16.9%52 W · 255 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f87…2b4dbacked Yes | 45c | 445.77$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 25c | 431.08$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.26 | 359 | 24.2%87 W · 272 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7e…0c53backed Yes | 7c | 424$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 350 | 16%56 W · 294 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0503…0743backed Yes | 16c | 395.3$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.49 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes | 41c | 394.98$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.09 | 181 | 34.3%62 W · 119 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 10c | 350$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7de…537abacked Yes | 17c | 344$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.73 | 54 | 11.1%6 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb614…2a44backed Yes | 30c | 342.28$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.43 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes | 14c | 326.22$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.33 | 232 | 22%51 W · 181 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed No | 71c | 323.84$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.78 | 903 | 17.1%154 W · 749 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 78c | 320$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.34 | 187 | 50.3%94 W · 93 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 14c | 317.52$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 239 | 18%43 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 4c | 307$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 445 | 19.3%86 W · 359 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa16c…7936backed No | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 77c | 295.52$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.13 | 159 | 52.8%84 W · 75 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb816…9e90backed Yes | 18c | 287.65$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.78 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 12c | 283.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 121 | 44.6%54 W · 67 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf452…8ff9backed Yes | 13c | 275.91$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 164 | 28%46 W · 118 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20e1…beabbacked No | 75c | 274.05$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.3 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…eac8backed No | 74c | 259.99$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.83 | 197 | 24.9%49 W · 148 L | -11.6wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae34…3a8abacked No | 78c | 246$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.36 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 73cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 21c | 241.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.09 | 337 | 31.2%105 W · 232 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 11c | 224.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 295 | 48.1%142 W · 153 L | +10.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 18c | 211.92$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.66 | 470 | 23.4%110 W · 360 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 68c | 211.75$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.14 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…0d51backed Yes | 36c | 200.48$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.77 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec85…ce38backed Yes | 14c | 200$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 577 | 5.5%32 W · 545 L | +15.8wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 19c | 200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 589 | 22.1%130 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x544a…dbe1backed Yes | 9c | 199.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 122 | 31.1%38 W · 84 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 14c | 195.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 129 | 45.7%59 W · 70 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe608…f6e8backed No | 76c | 195.34$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.74 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf569…3063backed Yes | 19c | 193.34$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 183.16$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.41 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed No | 64c | 160$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.06 | 472 | 37.7%178 W · 294 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 15c | 155.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -5.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67bf…b296backed Yes | 31c | 153.3$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.19 | 366 | 18.9%69 W · 297 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 10c | 150.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 41c | 143$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.88 | 419 | 22.9%96 W · 323 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0086…1b8cbacked Yes | 40c | 137.74$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.86 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 22 to August 24, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from August 22 to August 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from August 22 to August 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from August 22 to August 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from August 22 to August 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 22 to August 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 22 to August 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 22 to August 24, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.