Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 22 to August 24, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x316e494b3516d609954537ac216159f0366cd82f0b8b5f6be4d731314b4a2afa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $125,544
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $159,306
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $125,544 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 70c | 6,456$4,488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,968.26 | 227 | 15%34 W · 193 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 46c | 5,872$2,694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,178.27 | 714 | 16.7%119 W · 595 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 1c | 4,324$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 463 | 8.2%38 W · 425 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes | 45c | 3,320$1,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,835.29 | 152 | 27.6%42 W · 110 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 9c | 2,528$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.81 | 286 | 23.4%67 W · 219 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 49c | 2,384$1,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,217.3 | 556 | 22.5%125 W · 431 L | -19.8wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x138d…b23ebacked No | 3c | 1,620$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked No | 10c | 1,562$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.06 | 659 | 21.5%142 W · 517 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 26c | 1,447$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.14 | 430 | 19.3%83 W · 347 L | -19.5wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ab…2bcfbacked Yes | 58c | 1,341$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.13 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x913f…c676backed No | 25c | 1,328$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.19 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 46c | 1,292$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.84 | 101 | 55.4%56 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed No | 46c | 1,276$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.54 | 181 | 20.4%37 W · 144 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b34…a646backed Yes | 70c | 1,233$867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.18 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 55c | 1,173$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.49 | 232 | 60.3%140 W · 92 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked No | 21c | 1,146$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.89 | 1,061 | 10.7%113 W · 948 L | -34.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -59%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes | 54c | 1,118$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.03 | 153 | 37.3%57 W · 96 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 38c | 1,117$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.42 | 142 | 31.7%45 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 12c | 1,103$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.84 | 138 | 61.6%85 W · 53 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 42c | 1,041$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.55 | 213 | 48.4%103 W · 110 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e88…b898backed Yes | 39c | 994.64$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 39c | 858.62$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.58 | 128 | 10.9%14 W · 114 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 37c | 837.15$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.61 | 407 | 48.4%197 W · 210 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…0ef2backed Yes | 40c | 820.13$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.07 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 39c | 800.35$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.5 | 340 | 21.5%73 W · 267 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed92…5c02backed Yes | 42c | 795.13$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.22 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…40edbacked No | 17c | 684.13$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.3 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 7c | 679.38$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 225 | 57.8%130 W · 95 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 12c | 662.9$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.91 | 128 | 37.5%48 W · 80 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c55…9e26backed Yes | 78c | 650$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d3…71cfbacked No | 47c | 638.29$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…8015backed Yes | 75c | 534.55$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 41c | 514.51$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.27 | 124 | 58.1%72 W · 52 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed No | 27c | 512.67$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.75 | 1,809 | 7.4%133 W · 1,676 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes | 48c | 453.99$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.11 | 181 | 34.3%62 W · 119 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 39c | 420$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.8 | 187 | 50.3%94 W · 93 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…5762backed Yes | 79c | 420$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.95 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 62c | 408.27$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.53 | 320 | 55%176 W · 144 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 73c | 407.5$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.66 | 898 | 18.8%169 W · 729 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 47c | 400.48$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.48 | 251 | 22.3%56 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc1…0a06backed Yes | 79c | 379.75$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.75 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 53c | 339.72$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.75 | 393 | 30.3%119 W · 274 L | -20.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…4c88backed Yes | 51c | 331.02$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.02 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…c37fbacked Yes | 64c | 310.15$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.15 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca9…a2e6backed Yes | 42c | 301.76$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.88 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 55c | 300.33$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.32 | 589 | 22.1%130 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…0985backed Yes | 44c | 293$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.57 | 126 | 18.3%23 W · 103 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20e1…beabbacked No | 59c | 288.83$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.58 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 54c | 283.97$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.64 | 159 | 52.8%84 W · 75 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 53c | 254.72$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.88 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…fae3backed Yes | 47c | 250$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.5 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 54c | 239.75$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.88 | 1,072 | 13.6%146 W · 926 L | +38.7wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 57c | 233.72$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.35 | 254 | 24.4%62 W · 192 L | -13.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed No | 30c | 232.44$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.95 | 470 | 23.4%110 W · 360 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec7…12f7backed No | 33c | 211.32$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb614…2a44backed Yes | 53c | 208.39$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.12 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…a51bbacked No | 30c | 207.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb466…4953backed Yes | 50c | 206.78$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.39 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8673…59a5backed No | 49c | 204$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 28c | 203.77$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.05 | 121 | 44.6%54 W · 67 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1e…b7d3backed Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 47 | 76.6%36 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65ab…273dbacked Yes | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 211 | 33.2%70 W · 141 L | -11.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked No | 23c | 199.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 130 | 32.3%42 W · 88 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a77…f859backed No | 23c | 198.25$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 165 | 12.7%21 W · 144 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7b…1036backed No | 29c | 185.15$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.86 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 30c | 167$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.12 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24d6…6e3cbacked No | 57c | 158.02$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.13 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Yes | 41c | 155$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.94 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x250a…c9adbacked No | 61c | 154$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.94 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d0…0a38backed No | 60c | 147.5$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 78c | 132.64$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 284 | 17.3%49 W · 235 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe608…f6e8backed No | 56c | 127.7$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.04 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 22c | 124.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27bf…319bbacked Yes | 66c | 120.39$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.39 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1840…6798backed Yes | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 18c | 101.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -5.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 857 | 16.5%141 W · 716 L | +25.0wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.7 | 256 | 55.9%143 W · 113 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 216 | 33.3%72 W · 144 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 419 | 22.9%96 W · 323 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…99aebacked Yes | 50c | 99.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 24c | 96.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 403 | 19.1%77 W · 326 L | -57.7wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…3b45backed Yes | 44c | 96$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.38 | 333 | 43.2%144 W · 189 L | +28.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 52c | 90.16$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.87 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x040a…118dbacked No | 39c | 87.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes | 78c | 84.04$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 232 | 22%51 W · 181 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 56c | 80$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 126 | 58.7%74 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd98a…4db0backed Yes | 52c | 74.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.82 | 824 | 35.8%295 W · 529 L | -38.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 61c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 113 | 54%61 W · 52 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ea…6f57backed No | 58c | 70$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff9…1e60backed No | 59c | 67.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 113 | 61.9%70 W · 43 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30af…2c34backed No | 61c | 61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…a2c5backed No | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed Yes | 45c | 58.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…91dabacked Yes | 33c | 56.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes | 51c | 55.27$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 335 | 24.5%82 W · 253 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01af…2b6fbacked No | 45c | 54.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 22 to August 24, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from August 22 to August 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from August 22 to August 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from August 22 to August 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from August 22 to August 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 22 to August 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 22 to August 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 22 to August 24, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.