TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 22 to August 24, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$232,573
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$173,681

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $232,573 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6be9…3493backed Yes0c40,261$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.531,0968.2%90 W · 1,006 L+28.7wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-30.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes10c13,706$1,403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,403.0222715%34 W · 193 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-56.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked Yes1c13,225$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.4722323.3%52 W · 171 L+0.9wins0.00per pick23cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes3c12,000$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.9854217.2%93 W · 449 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-34.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes3c8,560$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.9953410.5%56 W · 478 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes20c5,385$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,080.3255622.5%125 W · 431 L-19.8wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-37.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes11c5,343$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.515337.3%57 W · 96 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-20.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes8c5,340$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.681,06110.7%113 W · 948 L-34.2wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-59%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c3,697$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.132,1883.9%85 W · 2,103 L+4.5wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x524d…4495backed Yes8c3,249$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.318120.4%37 W · 144 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-4.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes33c3,146$1,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,046.8971416.7%119 W · 595 L-13.6wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-29.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99a6…6558backed Yes2c3,008$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.157635.5%27 W · 49 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-20.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3981311.1%90 W · 723 L+29.7wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+30.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes1c2,616$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.934638.2%38 W · 425 L+1.3wins0.00per pick8cpaid-22.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No66c2,064$1,359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705.7743019.3%83 W · 347 L-19.5wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-53.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes9c2,019$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.290317.1%154 W · 749 L+0.7wins0.00per pick17cpaid-33.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes2c2,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3044519.3%86 W · 359 L-11.9wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-45.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x828e…c21bbacked Yes4c1,923$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.9228417.3%49 W · 235 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-12.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x138d…b23ebacked Yes2c1,884$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.67110%0 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes12c1,837$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.6164239.1%251 W · 391 L+48.8wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+17.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Yes2c1,781$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.9112837.5%48 W · 80 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-26.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes2c1,770$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3757417.2%99 W · 475 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes2c1,731$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3237110.8%40 W · 331 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1da4…385cbacked Yes1c1,637$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.73616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-72.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes13c1,603$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.491,8097.4%133 W · 1,676 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8288…5519backed Yes2c1,500$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.616428.7%47 W · 117 L+0.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x308a…eed3backed Yes1c1,500$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127028.6%20 W · 50 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick29cpaid+53.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…04cebacked Yes6c1,350$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.514231.7%45 W · 97 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-20.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1c3…73fdbacked Yes8c1,337$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1088028.8%23 W · 57 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-37.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes10c1,324$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.2559320.9%124 W · 469 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-26.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes9c1,285$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.4289818.8%169 W · 729 L+11.4wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-24.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No80c1,255$998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.9410155.4%56 W · 45 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-11.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xde0f…57c1backed Yes2c1,226$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.92225.9%13 W · 209 L-0.2wins0.00per pick6cpaid-41.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes9c1,157$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.1234221.9%75 W · 267 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+26.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes13c1,100$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.4730427%82 W · 222 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0ac…2d06backed Yes2c1,071$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.011127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+72.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes14c1,037$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.650919.3%98 W · 411 L-1.4wins0.00per pick20cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36cb…63d0backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1028511.2%32 W · 253 L+0.1wins0.00per pick11cpaid-22.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006020%12 W · 48 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-47.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes2c999.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1662812.3%77 W · 551 L+16.1wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No60c983.62$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.7813861.6%85 W · 53 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+22.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x408a…ac7fbacked Yes2c973.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207040%28 W · 42 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No80c932.83$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.2223260.3%140 W · 92 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes9c900$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.833216.9%56 W · 276 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes5c841.21$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.3911637.1%43 W · 73 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a35…db99backed Yes6c820.09$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.812222.7%5 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-47.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes20c782.04$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.334021.5%73 W · 267 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-35.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes5c753.4$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4613342.9%57 W · 76 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes4c699.7$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.35775.5%32 W · 545 L+15.8wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+37.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f69…cf59backed Yes15c643.25$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.9112310.6%13 W · 110 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+68.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes8c601.98$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.791,07213.6%146 W · 926 L+38.7wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec34…d61ebacked Yes3c600.03$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.51195.3%1 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-79.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes3c595.54$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1723918%43 W · 196 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes3c514.47$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5713242.4%56 W · 76 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes3c499.89$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1225424.4%62 W · 192 L-13.8wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-46.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes6c496.94$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2812144.6%54 W · 67 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc36…8542backed Yes8c496.67$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4225122.3%56 W · 195 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed Yes6c471.56$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1713745.3%62 W · 75 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0186…40edbacked Yes19c455.92$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.0110730.8%33 W · 74 L+0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf452…8ff9backed Yes17c449.74$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.5216428%46 W · 118 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+16.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8aa…a2ccbacked Yes23c429.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008035%28 W · 52 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+18.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ca9…a2e6backed Yes15c393.49$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.682725.9%7 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d55…cd90backed Yes4c370$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.965119.6%10 W · 41 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick23cpaid+9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97cd…227dbacked Yes26c366.89$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.231942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+197.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes6c355.33$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4712945.7%59 W · 70 L-0.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22af…399abacked Yes19c342.77$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.427420.3%15 W · 59 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+191.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked No70c342$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.665921.5%142 W · 517 L+2.4wins0.00per pick21cpaid-26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc959…c37fbacked Yes30c335.97$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005024%12 W · 38 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-41.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No66c335.71$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.4728623.4%67 W · 219 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+24.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01a4…4967backed No73c316.28$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.3216656%93 W · 73 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-5.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5bff…e08fbacked Yes29c305.08$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.3117116.4%28 W · 143 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-45.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes6c279.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.79425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-65.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No79c279.52$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.4815952.8%84 W · 75 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No75c275$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.322958.1%133 W · 96 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Yes24c257.12$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.9147023.4%110 W · 360 L-20.4wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-29.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0862…9a02backed Yes9c250$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.512223%28 W · 94 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x193a…35c0backed Yes5c249.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5965.2%5 W · 91 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-57%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5393…966abacked Yes4c242.06$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104524.4%11 W · 34 L-0.2wins0.00per pick25cpaid+102.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77d5…eacebacked Yes5c229.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.11087.4%8 W · 100 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+61.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No77c224.91$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.772,58913.1%340 W · 2,249 L+4.5wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No76c223.33$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.62767.2%20 W · 256 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+81.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa02…f3d3backed Yes25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505028%14 W · 36 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid+5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac5f…d808backed Yes19c200$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385024%12 W · 38 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+33.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes6c193.52$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4113747.4%65 W · 72 L+0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes7c186.95$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4457929.7%172 W · 407 L+2.5wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb466…4953backed Yes24c180$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.22330.4%7 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+144.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes10c137.97$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8212638.1%48 W · 78 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-25.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe807…8d4dbacked Yes26c132.18$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.022623.1%6 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No67c130$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.532055%176 W · 144 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No72c129.99$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.440748.4%197 W · 210 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed Yes17c120$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.45149%25 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No70c116$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.2211354%61 W · 52 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked No78c107.18$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.675058%29 W · 21 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes14c107.08$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.815339.6%21 W · 32 L-5.4wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-38.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No70c105$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.625655.9%143 W · 113 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed92…5c02backed Yes21c104.76$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222524%6 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick24cpaid-22.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2821633.3%72 W · 144 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3041922.9%96 W · 323 L-0.8wins0.00per pick23cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52d8…99aebacked Yes23c99.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x77ad…82bdbacked Yes17c99.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171625%4 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-45.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.