Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 22 to August 24, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5f91324af8d5baada4ff9e5fca23b8320761c5958df17d2a71353757ceb7a81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $232,573
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $173,681
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $232,573 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 0c | 40,261$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.53 | 1,096 | 8.2%90 W · 1,006 L | +28.7wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 10c | 13,706$1,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,403.02 | 227 | 15%34 W · 193 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked Yes | 1c | 13,225$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.47 | 223 | 23.3%52 W · 171 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 3c | 12,000$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.98 | 542 | 17.2%93 W · 449 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…0528backed Yes | 3c | 8,560$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.99 | 534 | 10.5%56 W · 478 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 20c | 5,385$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080.32 | 556 | 22.5%125 W · 431 L | -19.8wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes | 11c | 5,343$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.5 | 153 | 37.3%57 W · 96 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 8c | 5,340$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.68 | 1,061 | 10.7%113 W · 948 L | -34.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -59%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,697$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.13 | 2,188 | 3.9%85 W · 2,103 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed Yes | 8c | 3,249$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.3 | 181 | 20.4%37 W · 144 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 33c | 3,146$1,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,046.89 | 714 | 16.7%119 W · 595 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…6558backed Yes | 2c | 3,008$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.15 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 813 | 11.1%90 W · 723 L | +29.7wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,616$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 463 | 8.2%38 W · 425 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 66c | 2,064$1,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.77 | 430 | 19.3%83 W · 347 L | -19.5wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 9c | 2,019$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.2 | 903 | 17.1%154 W · 749 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 445 | 19.3%86 W · 359 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,923$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.92 | 284 | 17.3%49 W · 235 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x138d…b23ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,884$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 12c | 1,837$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.61 | 642 | 39.1%251 W · 391 L | +48.8wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 2c | 1,781$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 128 | 37.5%48 W · 80 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 2c | 1,770$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 574 | 17.2%99 W · 475 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 2c | 1,731$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 371 | 10.8%40 W · 331 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…385cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,637$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 13c | 1,603$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.49 | 1,809 | 7.4%133 W · 1,676 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…5519backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 164 | 28.7%47 W · 117 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x308a…eed3backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 6c | 1,350$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 142 | 31.7%45 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c3…73fdbacked Yes | 8c | 1,337$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 80 | 28.8%23 W · 57 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 10c | 1,324$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.25 | 593 | 20.9%124 W · 469 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 9c | 1,285$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.42 | 898 | 18.8%169 W · 729 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 80c | 1,255$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.94 | 101 | 55.4%56 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…57c1backed Yes | 2c | 1,226$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 222 | 5.9%13 W · 209 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…98edbacked Yes | 9c | 1,157$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.12 | 342 | 21.9%75 W · 267 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 13c | 1,100$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.47 | 304 | 27%82 W · 222 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…2d06backed Yes | 2c | 1,071$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes | 14c | 1,037$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.6 | 509 | 19.3%98 W · 411 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…63d0backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 285 | 11.2%32 W · 253 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 60 | 20%12 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 2c | 999.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 628 | 12.3%77 W · 551 L | +16.1wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 60c | 983.62$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.78 | 138 | 61.6%85 W · 53 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x408a…ac7fbacked Yes | 2c | 973.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 80c | 932.83$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.22 | 232 | 60.3%140 W · 92 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes | 9c | 900$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.8 | 332 | 16.9%56 W · 276 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 5c | 841.21$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.39 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a35…db99backed Yes | 6c | 820.09$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.81 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 20c | 782.04$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.3 | 340 | 21.5%73 W · 267 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 5c | 753.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.46 | 133 | 42.9%57 W · 76 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes | 4c | 699.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 577 | 5.5%32 W · 545 L | +15.8wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…cf59backed Yes | 15c | 643.25$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.91 | 123 | 10.6%13 W · 110 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 8c | 601.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.79 | 1,072 | 13.6%146 W · 926 L | +38.7wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec34…d61ebacked Yes | 3c | 600.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 3c | 595.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 239 | 18%43 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 3c | 514.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 3c | 499.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 254 | 24.4%62 W · 192 L | -13.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 6c | 496.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 121 | 44.6%54 W · 67 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 8c | 496.67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 251 | 22.3%56 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 6c | 471.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 137 | 45.3%62 W · 75 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…40edbacked Yes | 19c | 455.92$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.01 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf452…8ff9backed Yes | 17c | 449.74$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.52 | 164 | 28%46 W · 118 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8aa…a2ccbacked Yes | 23c | 429.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca9…a2e6backed Yes | 15c | 393.49$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.68 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d55…cd90backed Yes | 4c | 370$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97cd…227dbacked Yes | 26c | 366.89$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.23 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +197.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 6c | 355.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 129 | 45.7%59 W · 70 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22af…399abacked Yes | 19c | 342.77$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.42 | 74 | 20.3%15 W · 59 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +191.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked No | 70c | 342$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.6 | 659 | 21.5%142 W · 517 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…c37fbacked Yes | 30c | 335.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 66c | 335.71$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.47 | 286 | 23.4%67 W · 219 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…4967backed No | 73c | 316.28$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.32 | 166 | 56%93 W · 73 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…e08fbacked Yes | 29c | 305.08$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.31 | 171 | 16.4%28 W · 143 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 6c | 279.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 79c | 279.52$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.48 | 159 | 52.8%84 W · 75 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 275$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.3 | 229 | 58.1%133 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 24c | 257.12$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.91 | 470 | 23.4%110 W · 360 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0862…9a02backed Yes | 9c | 250$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x193a…35c0backed Yes | 5c | 249.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 96 | 5.2%5 W · 91 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5393…966abacked Yes | 4c | 242.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +102.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77d5…eacebacked Yes | 5c | 229.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 108 | 7.4%8 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 77c | 224.91$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.77 | 2,589 | 13.1%340 W · 2,249 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 76c | 223.33$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.6 | 276 | 7.2%20 W · 256 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa02…f3d3backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac5f…d808backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 6c | 193.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 137 | 47.4%65 W · 72 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 7c | 186.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 579 | 29.7%172 W · 407 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb466…4953backed Yes | 24c | 180$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 10c | 137.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe807…8d4dbacked Yes | 26c | 132.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 130$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 320 | 55%176 W · 144 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 129.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 407 | 48.4%197 W · 210 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 70c | 116$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.22 | 113 | 54%61 W · 52 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 78c | 107.18$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 14c | 107.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -5.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 105$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 256 | 55.9%143 W · 113 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed92…5c02backed Yes | 21c | 104.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 216 | 33.3%72 W · 144 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 419 | 22.9%96 W · 323 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…99aebacked Yes | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77ad…82bdbacked Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 22 to August 24, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from August 22 to August 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from August 22 to August 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from August 22 to August 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from August 22 to August 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 22 to August 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 22 to August 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 22 to August 24, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.